Head to head · July 2026 draft-day read
DeVonta Smith or Tetairoa McMillan?
DeVonta Smith and Tetairoa McMillan are a near-tie on 2025 production (9.6 vs 10.5 half-PPR PPG). At matching July 2026 ADP, the pick came down to your roster build, not a market tiebreak.
This week's projections are in the Week 6 start/sit card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
This week's start/sit · Half-PPR
Week 6: start DeVonta Smith or Tetairoa McMillan?
Tetairoa McMillan is the safer start: DeVonta Smith missed Weeks 4–5 (hamstring) and his Week 6 status isn't known yet.
Tetairoa McMillan also projects higher: 12.5 vs 11.5 for DeVonta Smith if he plays.
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WR · CAR
Tetairoa McMillan
12.5 pts projected · range 6.1–21.3
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WR · PHI · Status unknown
DeVonta Smith
11.5 pts projected if he plays · range 5.1–20.3
Missed Weeks 4–5 (hamstring) — Week 6 status not reported yet (first practice report Wed, Oct 14)
2026 season · the games so far
2026 head-to-head so far
Through Week 5, Tetairoa McMillan has out-scored DeVonta Smith by 2.5 PPR points per game, 18.6 to 16.2 (DeVonta Smith 3 games, Tetairoa McMillan 4 games).
Through Week 5 · Week 5 in progress — 10 of 15 games final · nflverse stats as of
DeVonta Smith · Week 5 injury report Out — hamstring, did not practice
| DeVonta Smith | Metric | Tetairoa McMillan |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Games | 4 |
| 16.2 | PPR points per game | 18.6 |
| 32% | Target share | 27% |
| 9.0 | Targets per game | 9.8 |
| 94% | Snap share | 87% |
| 16.2 | PPR points per game, last 3 games | 21.3 |
Purple marks the higher figure. Shares are team-relative, averaged per game; snap share counts only games with a published snap count. "Last 3 games" is each player's own last 3 games played. A dash means no 2026 figure. 2026 regular season via nflverse.
Game by game: DeVonta Smith · Tetairoa McMillan
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
Metric by metric
The tale of the tape
| DeVonta Smith | Metric | Tetairoa McMillan |
|---|---|---|
| 31 (WR16) | Draft ADP (July 2026) | 34 (WR17) |
| 32 | Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 34 |
| 9.6 | Fantasy points / game | 10.5 |
| 24.6% | Target share | — |
| 20.7% | Target share, last 3 games (2025) | — |
| 37 | Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 37 |
Purple marks the better figure. A dash means the engine did not cite that metric for that player. 2025 regular season via nflverse · ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator, Jul 15, 2026 snapshot.
The consensus read
July 2026 drafts separated them by a hair — DeVonta Smith at ADP 31, Tetairoa McMillan at ADP 34. On 2025 production it is 9.6 vs 10.5 half-PPR points per game.
What had to be true
This call flipped on beliefs that were checkable at the time. Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read.
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Checkpoint · DeVonta Smith
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
20.7% last 3 vs 24.6% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong move if you believed
DeVonta Smith's late-2025 target dip was matchup noise, not a role change
Poor move if instead
DeVonta Smith's target share is fading from the season baseline
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure here is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.