DeVonta Smith: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
DeVonta Smith's 9.6 half-PPR points per game in 2025 sit below what a WR16 draft price usually buys — July 2026 drafters were paying for projection, not the previous season's line. His target share slipped over his last three games of 2025.
This week's projection is in the Week 6 card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
DeVonta Smith
WR · Philadelphia Eagles
- Week 6 statusStatus unknown · Missed Weeks 4–5 (hamstring) — Week 6 status not reported yet (first practice report Wed, Oct 14)
- Week 5 injury reportOut — hamstring, did not practice
This week · Week 6
Projected 11.4 half-PPR points if he plays in Week 6, with a likely range of 5.0 to 20.2.
vs CAR · Sun 1:00 PM ET
Forecast 11.4 Half-PPR points: the Vegas line takes away 0.4, the matchup nothing. Show how it is built.
| Step | Points | Running total |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline: His role and efficiency over 3 games, with his preseason WR13 ADP at 40% weight, at his usual line | 11.8 | 11.8 |
| Vegas: PHI implied 22.0 vs 23.5 in his games | −0.4 | 11.4 |
| Matchup: CAR 6th toughest vs WR: already in the Vegas line | 0.0 | 11.4 |
| Availability: Status unknown: projected as if he plays | 0.0 | 11.4 |
| Projection | 11.4 | 11.4 |
Each step is the change from switching that factor on, in this order, so the steps add up to the projection. The matchup adds nothing with a line: the model's backtest found the line already prices the defense.
- Context: PHI is implied for 22.0 points, tied for 16th-highest of 28 teams with a line this week.
- Hurts: CAR ranks 27th of 32 defenses in fantasy points allowed to WRs, where 1st allows the most (context, not in the projection).
- Context: an outdoor game with no kickoff-hour forecast yet.
Season so far · through Week 5
- Half-PPR/g
- 13.0 half-PPR points a game over 3 games, 39.0 in all.
- PPR rank
- WR14 of 154 WRs with 2 or more games, by PPR points per game.
- Games
- 3 games with a stat line through Week 5.
- tgt share
- 19.4% of his team's targets this season, per team game.
PPR 48.5 (16.2/g) · Std 29.5 (9.8/g)
Game log · half-PPR
Half-PPR points by week, oldest first: Week 1 WAS 6.8, Week 2 TEN 22.7, Week 3 CHI 9.5, Week 4 did not play, Week 5 did not play. Bye in Week 10.
This week · PHI vs CAR
Week 6 projection
Week 6 status Status unknownMissed Weeks 4–5 (hamstring) — Week 6 status not reported yet (first practice report Wed, Oct 14)
- Half‑PPR
- 11.4
- PPR
- 14.2
- Standard
- 8.6
Range 5.0–20.2
Floor to ceiling in half-PPR points: the 10th to 90th percentile of how far past weeks landed from a projection like this one. About 4 in 5 landed inside it.
Projected line: 8.2 tgt · 5.55 rec · 69 yds · 0.28 TD
Show the math
- Volume
- 26% of PHI's targets × 30.4 a game
- 7.9 targets
- Efficiency
- 67% catch · 8.4 yds/target
- 5.4 rec · 67 yds
- Scoring chances
- 3.94 TD per 100 targets, from his red-zone usage
- 0.27 TD
- Vegas
- PHI implied 22.0 vs 23.5 in his games (×0.94)
- −3% volume, −12% TD rate
- Market prior
- Preseason WR13 in FFC ADP → 12.1 PPG, 40% weight at 3 games
- +0.4 half-PPR pts (11.0 → 11.4)
- Status
- Missed Weeks 4–5 (hamstring) — Week 6 status not reported yet (first practice report Wed, Oct 14)
- not applied: projected as if he plays
- Context (not in projection)
- CAR allows 0.89× league WR points (rank 27 of 32)
| Opponent | vs CARPHI at home |
|---|---|
| Kickoff | Sun 1:00 PM ET |
| Implied total | 22.0PHI · consensus line |
| CAR vs WR | Allows the 27th-most fantasy points to WRs0.89× the league average · context — not in the projection |
| Red zone | 14% of PHI's targets inside the 202 of 14, through Week 5 · 2 inside the 10 |
| Rest of season | WR15 of 103 · 11.9 PPGHalf-PPR points per game, market prior included · 11 games left through Week 17 · bye in Week 10 |
Trade value 22 of 100
Redraft chart, Weeks 6–17, 12-team Half-PPR: rank 34 of 85 players above replacement.
See the trade value chart Put him in a trade
Compare him with another player
Built from stats through Week 5, consensus line as of Sun, Oct 11, 8:19 PM ET, no Week 6 injury report yet, so no designation is applied. Game-day inactives are not in the model. Market prior: preseason ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator.
2026 season · the games so far
2026 so far
Through Week 5 · Week 5 in progress — 13 of 15 games final · nflverse stats as of
Week 5 injury report Out — hamstring, did not practice
- PPR pts / game
- 16.2
- WR rank
- WR14
- of 154 with 2+ games
- Games
- 3
- PHI
| Scoring | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | 29.5 | 9.8 |
| Half-PPR | 39.0 | 13.0 |
| PPR | 48.5 | 16.2 |
WR rank is by PPR points per game among WRs with 2 or more games.
Game log
Swipe for every stat and the calculator link
| Wk | Opp | PPR pts | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Tgt share | Snap % | Calculator |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | JAX | Did not play · Out (hamstring) on the Week 5 injury report | |||||||
| 4 | LAR | Did not play | |||||||
| 3 | CHI | 12.5 | 8 | 6 | 65 | 0 | 32% | 100% | Score this game |
| 2 | TEN | 27.7 | 13 | 10 | 117 | 1 | 38% | 88% | Score this game |
| 1 | WAS | 8.3 | 6 | 3 | 53 | 0 | 27% | 95% | Score this game |
PPR pts is nflverse's full-PPR total for the game. "Score this game" opens the fantasy point calculator with that exact line loaded, to re-score it in Standard, Half-PPR or your league's settings. A dash means nflverse has no figure for that game yet. "Did not play" means his team played but nflverse has no stat line for him, which is usually an injury or an inactive game day; the injury designation shows only for the week the latest report covers.
Usage trend
| Per game | Season (Wks 1–3) |
|---|---|
| Snap share | 94% |
| Targets per game | 9.0 |
| Target share | 32% |
| Air-yards share | 45% |
| PPR points per game | 16.2 |
3 games so far, so there is no recent-vs-season split yet: it starts once he has played more than 3. Shares are team-relative and averaged per game.
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP (July 2026) | 31.0 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 32 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 9.6 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | -0.0 | nflverse |
| Target share | 24.6% | nflverse |
| Target share, last 3 games (2025) | 20.7% | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 37 | Sleeper |
xFP (expected fantasy points) is what a typical player would score with the same targets, carries and field position. FPOE (points over expected) is actual points minus xFP, per game.
The consensus read
DeVonta Smith was drafted as the WR16 — ADP 31 — in July 2026. His 9.6 half-PPR points per game in 2025 clears the WR starter line, with targets fading late in that year.
- ADP 31.0
- Overall ADP rank 32
- Sleeper search rank 37
- Fantasy points / game 9.6
The edge case — what had to be true
Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read. Check them against what has actually happened since.
-
Checkpoint
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
20.7% last 3 vs 24.6% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
DeVonta Smith's late-2025 target dip was matchup noise, not a role change
Poor pick if instead
DeVonta Smith's target share is fading from the season baseline
-
Checkpoint
Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025)
-0.0 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Steady: within half a point a game of expectation, so his usage explains his scoring and this checkpoint does not lean either way.
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
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