DeVonta Smith: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
DeVonta Smith's 9.6 half-PPR points per game in 2025 sit below what a WR16 draft price usually buys — you are paying for projection, not last season's line. His target share slipped over his last three games of 2025.
Our read, framed from the cited 2025 data below — opinion, not a projection.
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP | 31.0 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank | 32 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 9.6 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | -0.0 | nflverse |
| Target share | 24.6% | nflverse |
| Target share, last 3 games (2025) | 20.7% | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank | 37 | Sleeper |
The consensus read
The market drafts DeVonta Smith as the WR16 (ADP 31). His 9.6 half-PPR points per game in 2025 clears the WR starter line, with targets fading late in that year.
- adp 31.0
- adp_rank 32
- search_rank 37
- ppg 9.6
The edge case — what has to be true
Every belief is tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that confirms or denies it, with its current value. Draft on the beliefs you share.
Strong pick if you believe…
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DeVonta Smith's late-2025 target dip was matchup noise, not a role change
Checkpoint
target_share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
20.7% last 3 vs 24.6% season (2025)
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DeVonta Smith's underperformance was bad luck — the usage converts going forward
Checkpoint
fpoe (actual minus xFP per game), season (2025)
-0.0 pts/gm vs expectation (2025)
Poor pick if instead…
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DeVonta Smith's target share is fading from the season baseline
Checkpoint
target_share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
20.7% last 3 vs 24.6% season (2025)
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DeVonta Smith keeps leaving points on the field relative to his usage
Checkpoint
fpoe (actual minus xFP per game), season (2025)
-0.0 pts/gm vs expectation (2025)
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator.
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
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