Tetairoa McMillan: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
Tetairoa McMillan's 10.5 half-PPR points per game in 2025 sit below what a WR17 draft price usually buys — July 2026 drafters were paying for projection, not the previous season's line. His target share slipped over his last three games of 2025.
Our read, framed from the cited 2025 data below — opinion, not a projection.
Tetairoa McMillan
WR · Carolina Panthers
This week · Week 5
On bye in Week 5. Back in Week 6 at PHI, Sun 1:00 PM ET.
Season so far · through Week 4
- Half-PPR/g
- 15.4 half-PPR points a game over 4 games, 61.5 in all.
- PPR rank
- WR9 of 145 WRs with 2 or more games, by PPR points per game.
- Games
- 4 games with a stat line through Week 4.
- tgt share
- 27.0% of his team's targets this season, per team game.
PPR 74.5 (18.6/g) · Std 48.5 (12.1/g)
Game log · half-PPR
Half-PPR points by week, oldest first: Week 1 CHI 8.0, Week 2 ATL 12.6, Week 3 CLE 2.7, Week 4 DET 38.2.
This week · CAR on bye
Week 5
On bye in Week 5. Back in Week 6 at PHI, Sun 1:00 PM ET.
| Rest of season | WR13 of 100 · 12.1 PPGHalf-PPR points per game, market prior included · 12 games left through Week 17 |
|---|
Trade value 25 of 100
Redraft chart, Weeks 5–17, 12-team Half-PPR: rank 31 of 84 players above replacement.
See the trade value chart Put him in a trade
Market prior: preseason ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator.
2026 season · the games so far
2026 so far
Through Week 4 · nflverse stats as of
- PPR pts / game
- 18.6
- WR rank
- WR9
- of 145 with 2+ games
- Games
- 4
- CAR
| Scoring | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | 48.5 | 12.1 |
| Half-PPR | 61.5 | 15.4 |
| PPR | 74.5 | 18.6 |
WR rank is by PPR points per game among WRs with 2 or more games.
Game log
Swipe for every stat and the calculator link
| Wk | Opp | PPR pts | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Tgt share | Snap % | Calculator |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | DET | 45.2 | 16 | 14 | 192 | 2 | 41% | 89% | Score this game |
| 3 | CLE | 3.7 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 12% | 95% | Score this game |
| 2 | ATL | 15.1 | 10 | 5 | 101 | 0 | 31% | 80% | Score this game |
| 1 | CHI | 10.5 | 8 | 5 | 75 | 0 | 24% | 82% | Score this game |
PPR pts is nflverse's full-PPR total for the game. "Score this game" opens the fantasy point calculator with that exact line loaded, to re-score it in Standard, Half-PPR or your league's settings. A dash means nflverse has no figure for that game yet.
Usage trend
Swipe for the season and the change
| Per game | Last 3 (Wks 2–4) | Season | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snap share | 88% | 87% | +2 |
| Targets per game | 10.3 | 9.8 | +0.6 |
| Target share | 28% | 27% | +1 |
| Air-yards share | 32% | 32% | 0 |
| PPR points per game | 21.3 | 18.6 | +2.7 |
Shares are team-relative and averaged per game.
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP (July 2026) | 34.0 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 34 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 10.5 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | -0.2 | nflverse |
| Target share | 25.7% | nflverse |
| Target share, last 3 games (2025) | 23.8% | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 37 | Sleeper |
xFP (expected fantasy points) is what a typical player would score with the same targets, carries and field position. FPOE (points over expected) is actual points minus xFP, per game.
The consensus read
Tetairoa McMillan was drafted as the WR17 — ADP 34 — in July 2026. His 10.5 half-PPR points per game in 2025 clears the WR starter line, with targets fading late in that year.
- ADP 34.0
- Overall ADP rank 34
- Sleeper search rank 37
- Fantasy points / game 10.5
The edge case — what had to be true
Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read. Check them against what has actually happened since.
-
Checkpoint
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
23.8% last 3 vs 25.7% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Tetairoa McMillan's late-2025 target dip was matchup noise, not a role change
Poor pick if instead
Tetairoa McMillan's target share is fading from the season baseline
-
Checkpoint
Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025)
-0.2 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Steady: within half a point a game of expectation, so his usage explains his scoring and this checkpoint does not lean either way.
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
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