Head to head · July 2026 draft-day read
Garrett Wilson or DeVonta Smith?
Garrett Wilson was the stronger 2025 producer — 11.6 vs 9.6 half-PPR points per game, at essentially the same July 2026 draft cost (ADP 29.4 vs 31). That gap was the draft-day case for Garrett Wilson.
This week's projections are in the Week 5 start/sit card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
This week's start/sit · Half-PPR
Week 5: start Garrett Wilson or DeVonta Smith?
Garrett Wilson is the safer start: DeVonta Smith missed Week 4 (hamstring) and his Week 5 status isn't known yet.
If DeVonta Smith is cleared, his projection is 11.3 vs Garrett Wilson's 11.1.
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WR · PHI · Status unknown
DeVonta Smith
11.3 pts projected if he plays · range 4.9–20.1
Missed Week 4 (hamstring) — Week 5 status not reported yet (first practice report Wed, Oct 7)
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WR · NYJ
Garrett Wilson
11.1 pts projected · range 4.7–19.9
2026 season · the games so far
2026 head-to-head so far
Through Week 4, DeVonta Smith has out-scored Garrett Wilson by 0.4 PPR points per game, 16.2 to 15.8 (Garrett Wilson 4 games, DeVonta Smith 3 games).
Through Week 4 · Week 4 in progress — 15 of 16 games final · nflverse stats as of
DeVonta Smith · Week 4 injury report Out — hamstring, did not practice
| Garrett Wilson | Metric | DeVonta Smith |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Games | 3 |
| 15.8 | PPR points per game | 16.2 |
| 28% | Target share | 32% |
| 7.8 | Targets per game | 9.0 |
| 89% | Snap share | 94% |
| 16.4 | PPR points per game, last 3 games | 16.2 |
Purple marks the higher figure. Shares are team-relative, averaged per game; snap share counts only games with a published snap count. "Last 3 games" is each player's own last 3 games played. A dash means no 2026 figure. 2026 regular season via nflverse.
Game by game: Garrett Wilson · DeVonta Smith
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
Metric by metric
The tale of the tape
| Garrett Wilson | Metric | DeVonta Smith |
|---|---|---|
| 29.4 (WR15) | Draft ADP (July 2026) | 31 (WR16) |
| 30 | Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 32 |
| 11.6 | Fantasy points / game | 9.6 |
| 35.4% | Target share | — |
| 33.3% | Target share, last 3 games (2025) | — |
| 38 | Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 37 |
Purple marks the better figure. A dash means the engine did not cite that metric for that player. 2025 regular season via nflverse · ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator, Jul 15, 2026 snapshot.
The consensus read
July 2026 drafts separated them by a hair — Garrett Wilson at ADP 29.4, DeVonta Smith at ADP 31. On 2025 production it is 11.6 vs 9.6 half-PPR points per game.
What had to be true
This call flipped on beliefs that were checkable at the time. Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read.
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Checkpoint · Garrett Wilson
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
33.3% last 3 vs 35.4% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong move if you believed
Garrett Wilson's late-2025 target dip was matchup noise, not a role change
Poor move if instead
Garrett Wilson's target share is fading from the season baseline
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure here is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.