Head to head · July 2026 draft-day read
Garrett Wilson or DeVonta Smith?
Garrett Wilson was the stronger 2025 producer — 11.6 vs 9.6 half-PPR points per game, at essentially the same July 2026 draft cost (ADP 29.4 vs 31). That gap was the draft-day case for Garrett Wilson.
This week's projections are in the Week 9 start/sit card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
This week's start/sit · Half-PPR
Week 9: start Garrett Wilson or DeVonta Smith?
Garrett Wilson is the safer start: DeVonta Smith missed Weeks 7–8 (hamstring) and his Week 9 status isn't known yet.
If DeVonta Smith is cleared, his projection is 10.9 vs Garrett Wilson's 10.8.
-
WR · PHI · Status unknown
DeVonta Smith
10.9 pts projected if he plays · range 4.4–19.7
Missed Weeks 7–8 (hamstring) — Week 9 status not reported yet (first practice report Wed, Nov 4)
-
WR · NYJ
Garrett Wilson
10.8 pts projected · range 4.4–19.6
2026 season · the games so far
2026 head-to-head so far
Through Week 8, DeVonta Smith has out-scored Garrett Wilson by 3.1 PPR points per game, 17.3 to 14.2 (Garrett Wilson 8 games, DeVonta Smith 4 games).
Through Week 8 · Week 8 in progress — 13 of 14 games final · nflverse stats as of
DeVonta Smith · Week 8 injury report Out — hamstring, did not practice
| Garrett Wilson | Metric | DeVonta Smith |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Games | 4 |
| 14.2 | PPR points per game | 17.3 |
| 28% | Target share | 32% |
| 7.9 | Targets per game | 10.3 |
| 89% | Snap share | 87% |
| 9.1 | PPR points per game, last 3 games | 20.2 |
Purple marks the higher figure. Shares are team-relative, averaged per game; snap share counts only games with a published snap count. "Last 3 games" is each player's own last 3 games played. A dash means no 2026 figure. 2026 regular season via nflverse.
Game by game: Garrett Wilson · DeVonta Smith
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
Metric by metric
The tale of the tape
| Garrett Wilson | Metric | DeVonta Smith |
|---|---|---|
| 29.4 (WR15) | Draft ADP (July 2026) | 31 (WR16) |
| 30 | Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 32 |
| 11.6 | Fantasy points / game | 9.6 |
| 35.4% | Target share | — |
| 33.3% | Target share, last 3 games (2025) | — |
| 38 | Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 37 |
Purple marks the better figure. A dash means the engine did not cite that metric for that player. 2025 regular season via nflverse · ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator, Jul 15, 2026 snapshot.
The consensus read
July 2026 drafts separated them by a hair — Garrett Wilson at ADP 29.4, DeVonta Smith at ADP 31. On 2025 production it is 11.6 vs 9.6 half-PPR points per game.
What had to be true
This call flipped on beliefs that were checkable at the time. Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read.
-
Checkpoint · Garrett Wilson
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
33.3% last 3 vs 35.4% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong move if you believed
Garrett Wilson's late-2025 target dip was matchup noise, not a role change
Poor move if instead
Garrett Wilson's target share is fading from the season baseline
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure here is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.