Head to head · July 2026 draft-day read
Parker Washington or Brian Thomas?
Parker Washington was the stronger 2025 producer — 9.7 vs 8.2 half-PPR points per game, at essentially the same July 2026 draft cost (ADP 70.4 vs 74.7). That gap was the draft-day case for Parker Washington.
This week's projections are in the Week 5 start/sit card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
This week's start/sit · Half-PPR
Week 5: start Parker Washington or Brian Thomas?
Lean Parker Washington over Brian Thomas Jr. (2.1 pts).
In 2024–25, projection gaps this size went the higher player's way about 62% of the time.
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WR · JAX
Parker Washington
9.2 pts projected · range 2.7–18.0
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WR · JAX
Brian Thomas Jr.
7.1 pts projected · range 0.6–15.9
2026 season · the games so far
2026 head-to-head so far
Through Week 4, Parker Washington has out-scored Brian Thomas by 6.4 PPR points per game, 12.8 to 6.4 (4 games each).
Through Week 4 · nflverse stats as of
| Parker Washington | Metric | Brian Thomas |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Games | 4 |
| 12.8 | PPR points per game | 6.4 |
| 26% | Target share | 14% |
| 6.5 | Targets per game | 3.5 |
| 76% | Snap share | 47% |
| 10.6 | PPR points per game, last 3 games | 6.2 |
Purple marks the higher figure. Shares are team-relative, averaged per game; snap share counts only games with a published snap count. "Last 3 games" is each player's own last 3 games played. A dash means no 2026 figure. 2026 regular season via nflverse.
Game by game: Parker Washington · Brian Thomas
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
Metric by metric
The tale of the tape
| Parker Washington | Metric | Brian Thomas |
|---|---|---|
| 70.4 (WR35) | Draft ADP (July 2026) | 74.7 (WR36) |
| 72 | Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 74 |
| 9.7 | Fantasy points / game | 8.2 |
| 18.0% | Target share | — |
| 28.2% | Target share, last 3 games (2025) | — |
| 71 | Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 66 |
Purple marks the better figure. A dash means the engine did not cite that metric for that player. 2025 regular season via nflverse · ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator, Jul 15, 2026 snapshot.
The consensus read
July 2026 drafts separated them by a hair — Parker Washington at ADP 70.4, Brian Thomas at ADP 74.7. On 2025 production it is 9.7 vs 8.2 half-PPR points per game.
What had to be true
This call flipped on beliefs that were checkable at the time. Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read.
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Checkpoint · Parker Washington
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
28.2% last 3 vs 18.0% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong move if you believed
Parker Washington's late-2025 target share is the new baseline, not a blip
Poor move if instead
Parker Washington's late-2025 target spike is small-sample noise that reverts
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure here is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.