Brian Thomas: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
Brian Thomas's 8.2 half-PPR points per game in 2025 sit below what a WR36 draft price usually buys — July 2026 drafters were paying for projection, not the previous season's line. His target share slipped over his last three games of 2025.
This week's projection is in the Week 6 card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
Brian Thomas
WR · Jacksonville Jaguars
This week · Week 6
Projected 6.7 half-PPR points in Week 6, with a likely range of 0.3 to 15.6.
vs HOU · Sun 9:30 AM ET
Forecast 6.7 Half-PPR points: the Vegas line takes away 0.2, the matchup nothing. Show how it is built.
| Step | Points | Running total |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline: His role and efficiency over 5 games, with his preseason WR33 ADP at 29% weight, at his usual line | 6.9 | 6.9 |
| Vegas: JAX implied 23.3 vs 24.1 in his games | −0.2 | 6.7 |
| Matchup: HOU 5th softest vs WR: already in the Vegas line | 0.0 | 6.7 |
| Availability: No designation, no teammate ruled out | 0.0 | 6.7 |
| Projection | 6.7 | 6.7 |
Each step is the change from switching that factor on, in this order, so the steps add up to the projection. The matchup adds nothing with a line: the model's backtest found the line already prices the defense.
- Context: JAX is implied for 23.3 points, tied for 11th-highest of 28 teams with a line this week.
- Helps: HOU ranks 5th of 32 defenses in fantasy points allowed to WRs, where 1st allows the most (context, not in the projection).
- Hurts: kickoff-hour forecast of wind NE 15 mph, past the wind line where deep passing falls off (context, not in the projection).
Season so far · through Week 5
- Half-PPR/g
- 4.2 half-PPR points a game over 5 games, 21.0 in all.
- PPR rank
- WR95 of 154 WRs with 2 or more games, by PPR points per game.
- Games
- 5 games with a stat line through Week 5.
- tgt share
- 12.8% of his team's targets this season, per team game.
PPR 25.5 (5.1/g) · Std 16.5 (3.3/g)
Game log · half-PPR
Half-PPR points by week, oldest first: Week 1 CLE 5.5, Week 2 DEN 5.5, Week 3 NE 1.3, Week 4 CIN 8.7, Week 5 PHI 0.0. Bye in Week 7.
This week · JAX vs HOU
Week 6 projection
- Half‑PPR
- 6.7
- PPR
- 8.1
- Standard
- 5.4
Range 0.3–15.6
Floor to ceiling in half-PPR points: the 10th to 90th percentile of how far past weeks landed from a projection like this one. About 4 in 5 landed inside it.
Projected line: 4.9 tgt · 2.74 rec · 36 yds · 0.29 TD
Show the math
- Volume
- 14% of JAX's targets × 30.8 a game
- 4.2 targets
- Efficiency
- 56% catch · 7.4 yds/target
- 2.3 rec · 31 yds
- Scoring chances
- 6.47 TD per 100 targets, from his red-zone usage
- 0.25 TD
- Vegas
- JAX implied 23.3 vs 24.1 in his games (×0.96)
- −2% volume, −7% TD rate
- Market prior
- Preseason WR33 in FFC ADP → 9.5 PPG, 29% weight at 5 games
- +1.0 half-PPR pts (5.7 → 6.7)
- Context (not in projection)
- HOU allows 1.12× league WR points (rank 5 of 32)
| Opponent | vs HOUJAX at home |
|---|---|
| Kickoff | Sun 9:30 AM ET |
| Implied total | 23.3JAX · consensus line |
| Wind | Wind flag: NE 15 mphKickoff-hour forecast, sustained 15 mph or more · context — not in the projection |
| HOU vs WR | Allows the 5th-most fantasy points to WRs1.12× the league average · context — not in the projection |
| Red zone | 13% of JAX's targets inside the 203 of 24, through Week 5 · 3 inside the 10 · 1 TD |
| Rest of season | WR52 of 103 · 7.6 PPGHalf-PPR points per game, market prior included · 11 games left through Week 17 · bye in Week 7 |
Trade value 0 of 100
Redraft chart, Weeks 6–17, 12-team Half-PPR: at or below a replacement player, so about 0 in a trade.
See the trade value chart Put him in a trade
Compare him with another player
Built from stats through Week 5, consensus line as of Sun, Oct 11, 8:19 PM ET, no Week 6 injury report yet, so no designation is applied. Game-day inactives are not in the model. Market prior: preseason ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator.
2026 season · the games so far
2026 so far
Through Week 5 · Week 5 in progress — 13 of 15 games final · nflverse stats as of
- PPR pts / game
- 5.1
- WR rank
- WR95
- of 154 with 2+ games
- Games
- 5
- JAX
| Scoring | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | 16.5 | 3.3 |
| Half-PPR | 21.0 | 4.2 |
| PPR | 25.5 | 5.1 |
WR rank is by PPR points per game among WRs with 2 or more games.
Game log
Swipe for every stat and the calculator link
| Wk | Opp | PPR pts | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Tgt share | Snap % | Calculator |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | PHI | 0.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8% | — | Score this game |
| 4 | CIN | 9.7 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 9% | 62% | Score this game |
| 3 | NE | 1.8 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | 37% | Score this game |
| 2 | DEN | 7.0 | 8 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 29% | 54% | Score this game |
| 1 | CLE | 7.0 | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 14% | 35% | Score this game |
PPR pts is nflverse's full-PPR total for the game. "Score this game" opens the fantasy point calculator with that exact line loaded, to re-score it in Standard, Half-PPR or your league's settings. A dash means nflverse has no figure for that game yet.
Usage trend
Swipe for the season and the change
| Per game | Last 3 (Wks 3–5) | Season | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snap share | 50% | 47% | +3 |
| Targets per game | 2.0 | 3.4 | −1.4 |
| Target share | 7% | 13% | −6 |
| Air-yards share | 9% | 15% | −5 |
| PPR points per game | 3.8 | 5.1 | −1.3 |
Shares are team-relative and averaged per game. Snap share leaves out Week 5: no snap count has been published for that game yet.
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP (July 2026) | 74.7 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 74 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 8.2 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | -1.9 | nflverse |
| Target share | 19.3% | nflverse |
| Target share, last 3 games (2025) | 14.5% | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 66 | Sleeper |
xFP (expected fantasy points) is what a typical player would score with the same targets, carries and field position. FPOE (points over expected) is actual points minus xFP, per game.
The consensus read
Brian Thomas was drafted as the WR36 — ADP 74.7 — in July 2026. His 8.2 half-PPR points per game in 2025 sits below the WR starter line, with targets fading late in that year.
- ADP 74.7
- Overall ADP rank 74
- Sleeper search rank 66
- Fantasy points / game 8.2
The edge case — what had to be true
Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read. Check them against what has actually happened since.
-
Checkpoint
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
14.5% last 3 vs 19.3% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Brian Thomas's late-2025 target dip was matchup noise, not a role change
Poor pick if instead
Brian Thomas's target share is fading from the season baseline
-
Checkpoint
Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025)
-1.9 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Brian Thomas's underperformance was bad luck — the usage converts going forward
Poor pick if instead
Brian Thomas keeps leaving points on the field relative to his usage
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
Next step
Everything for Week 6, on one page.
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