Brock Bowers: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
Brock Bowers's 12.0 half-PPR points per game in 2025 sit below what a TE2 draft price usually buys — July 2026 drafters were paying for projection, not the previous season's line. His target share trended up over his last three games of 2025.
This week's projection is in the Week 5 card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
Brock Bowers
TE · Las Vegas Raiders
This week · Week 5
Projected 13.8 half-PPR points in Week 5, with a likely range of 9.1 to 21.3.Limited data: only 2 2026 games behind this projection, so it leans on his preseason ADP (50% weight). Expect it to move.
at NE · Sun 1:00 PM ET
Forecast 13.8 Half-PPR points: the Vegas line nothing, the matchup nothing. Show how it is built.
| Step | Points | Running total |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline: His role and efficiency over 2 games, with his preseason TE1 ADP at 50% weight, at his usual line | 13.8 | 13.8 |
| Vegas: LV implied 20.8 vs 20.8 in his games | 0.0 | 13.8 |
| Matchup: NE 2nd toughest vs TE: already in the Vegas line | 0.0 | 13.8 |
| Availability: No designation, no teammate ruled out | 0.0 | 13.8 |
| Projection | 13.8 | 13.8 |
Each step is the change from switching that factor on, in this order, so the steps add up to the projection. The matchup adds nothing with a line: the model's backtest found the line already prices the defense.
- Hurts: LV is implied for 20.8 points, tied for 18th-highest of 28 teams with a line this week.
- Hurts: NE ranks 31st of 32 defenses in fantasy points allowed to TEs, where 1st allows the most (context, not in the projection).
- Context: kickoff-hour forecast SW 8 mph, under the 15 mph wind line.
Season so far · through Week 4
- Half-PPR/g
- 20.1 half-PPR points a game over 2 games, 40.2 in all.
- PPR rank
- TE1 of 82 TEs with 2 or more games, by PPR points per game.
- Games
- 2 games with a stat line through Week 4.
- tgt share
- 16.5% of his team's targets this season, per team game.
PPR 48.2 (24.1/g) · Std 32.2 (16.1/g)
Game log · half-PPR
Half-PPR points by week, oldest first: Week 1 did not play, Week 2 did not play, Week 3 NO 22.6, Week 4 KC 17.6. Bye in Week 13.
This week · LV at NE
Week 5 projection
- Half‑PPR
- 13.8
- PPR
- 17.0
- Standard
- 10.7
Range 9.1–21.3
Floor to ceiling in half-PPR points: the 10th to 90th percentile of how far past weeks landed from a projection like this one. About 4 in 5 landed inside it.
Projected line: 9.1 tgt · 6.30 rec · 71 yds · 0.58 TD
Show the math
- Volume
- 25% of LV's targets × 32.2 a game
- 8.3 targets
- Efficiency
- 70% catch · 7.7 yds/target
- 5.8 rec · 65 yds
- Scoring chances
- 6.07 TD per 100 targets, from his red-zone usage
- 0.54 TD
- Vegas
- LV implied 20.8 vs 20.8 in his games (×1.00)
- −0% volume, −0% TD rate
- Market prior
- Preseason TE1 in FFC ADP → 14.9 PPG, 50% weight at 2 games
- +1.2 half-PPR pts (12.7 → 13.8)
- Context (not in projection)
- NE allows 0.70× league TE points (rank 31 of 32)
| Opponent | at NELV on the road |
|---|---|
| Kickoff | Sun 1:00 PM ET |
| Implied total | 20.8LV · consensus line |
| Wind | No wind flagKickoff-hour forecast: SW 8 mph |
| NE vs TE | Allows the 31st-most fantasy points to TEs0.70× the league average · context — not in the projection |
| Red zone | 20% of LV's targets inside the 204 of 20, through Week 4 · 2 inside the 10 · 2 TD |
| Rest of season | TE1 of 48 · 14.1 PPGHalf-PPR points per game, market prior included · 12 games left through Week 17 · bye in Week 13 |
Trade value 47 of 100
Redraft chart, Weeks 5–17, 12-team Half-PPR: rank 14 of 84 players above replacement.
See the trade value chart Put him in a trade
Compare him with another player
Built from stats through Week 4, consensus line as of Thu, Oct 8, 8:25 PM ET, Week 5 injury report. Game-day inactives are not in the model. Market prior: preseason ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator.
2026 season · the games so far
2026 so far
Through Week 4 · nflverse stats as of
- PPR pts / game
- 24.1
- TE rank
- TE1
- of 82 with 2+ games
- Games
- 2
- LV
| Scoring | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | 32.2 | 16.1 |
| Half-PPR | 40.2 | 20.1 |
| PPR | 48.2 | 24.1 |
TE rank is by PPR points per game among TEs with 2 or more games.
Game log
Swipe for every stat and the calculator link
| Wk | Opp | PPR pts | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Tgt share | Snap % | Calculator |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | KC | 20.6 | 11 | 6 | 86 | 1 | 23% | 82% | Score this game |
| 3 | NO | 27.6 | 13 | 10 | 116 | 1 | 43% | 79% | Score this game |
| 2 | LAC | Did not play | |||||||
| 1 | MIA | Did not play | |||||||
PPR pts is nflverse's full-PPR total for the game. "Score this game" opens the fantasy point calculator with that exact line loaded, to re-score it in Standard, Half-PPR or your league's settings. A dash means nflverse has no figure for that game yet. "Did not play" means his team played but nflverse has no stat line for him, which is usually an injury or an inactive game day; the injury designation shows only for the week the latest report covers.
Usage trend
| Per game | Season (Wks 3–4) |
|---|---|
| Snap share | 81% |
| Targets per game | 12.0 |
| Target share | 33% |
| Air-yards share | 36% |
| PPR points per game | 24.1 |
2 games so far, so there is no recent-vs-season split yet: it starts once he has played more than 3. Shares are team-relative and averaged per game.
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP (July 2026) | 41.0 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 42 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 12.0 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | +2.4 | nflverse |
| Target share | 23.4% | nflverse |
| Target share, last 3 games (2025) | 24.2% | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 21 | Sleeper |
xFP (expected fantasy points) is what a typical player would score with the same targets, carries and field position. FPOE (points over expected) is actual points minus xFP, per game.
The consensus read
Brock Bowers was drafted as the TE2 — ADP 41 — in July 2026. His 12.0 half-PPR points per game in 2025 clears the TE starter line, with targets trending up late in that year.
- ADP 41.0
- Overall ADP rank 42
- Sleeper search rank 21
- Fantasy points / game 12.0
The edge case — what had to be true
Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read. Check them against what has actually happened since.
-
Checkpoint
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
24.2% last 3 vs 23.4% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Brock Bowers's late-2025 target share is the new baseline, not a blip
Poor pick if instead
Brock Bowers's late-2025 target uptick is small-sample noise that reverts
-
Checkpoint
Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025)
+2.4 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Brock Bowers's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Poor pick if instead
Brock Bowers's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
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