Colston Loveland: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
Colston Loveland's 8.5 half-PPR points per game in 2025 sit below what a TE3 draft price usually buys — July 2026 drafters were paying for projection, not the previous season's line. His target share trended up over his last three games of 2025.
This week's projection is in the Week 6 card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
Colston Loveland
TE · Chicago Bears
This week · Week 6
Projected 8.3 half-PPR points in Week 6, with a likely range of 3.6 to 15.8.
at ATL · Sun 1:00 PM ET
Forecast 8.3 Half-PPR points: the Vegas line adds 0.3, the matchup nothing. Show how it is built.
| Step | Points | Running total |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline: His role and efficiency over 5 games, with his preseason TE3 ADP at 29% weight, at his usual line | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| Vegas: CHI implied 24.8 vs 23.4 in his games | +0.3 | 8.3 |
| Matchup: ATL 14th softest vs TE: already in the Vegas line | 0.0 | 8.3 |
| Availability: No designation, no teammate ruled out | 0.0 | 8.3 |
| Projection | 8.3 | 8.3 |
Each step is the change from switching that factor on, in this order, so the steps add up to the projection. The matchup adds nothing with a line: the model's backtest found the line already prices the defense.
- Helps: CHI is implied for 24.8 points, 9th-highest of 28 teams with a line this week.
- Context: ATL ranks 14th of 32 defenses in fantasy points allowed to TEs, where 1st allows the most (context, not in the projection).
- Context: a retractable roof, treated as indoors.
Season so far · through Week 5
- Half-PPR/g
- 3.5 half-PPR points a game over 5 games, 17.5 in all.
- PPR rank
- TE42 of 91 TEs with 2 or more games, by PPR points per game.
- Games
- 5 games with a stat line through Week 5.
- tgt share
- 14.4% of his team's targets this season, per team game.
PPR 24.0 (4.8/g) · Std 11.0 (2.2/g)
Game log · half-PPR
Half-PPR points by week, oldest first: Week 1 CAR 0.0, Week 2 MIN 0.8, Week 3 PHI 5.1, Week 4 NYJ 8.7, Week 5 GB 2.9. Bye in Week 10.
This week · CHI at ATL
Week 6 projection
- Half‑PPR
- 8.3
- PPR
- 10.3
- Standard
- 6.3
Range 3.6–15.8
Floor to ceiling in half-PPR points: the 10th to 90th percentile of how far past weeks landed from a projection like this one. About 4 in 5 landed inside it.
Projected line: 6.0 tgt · 3.94 rec · 39 yds · 0.40 TD
Show the math
- Volume
- 15% of CHI's targets × 31.9 a game
- 4.9 targets
- Efficiency
- 67% catch · 6.8 yds/target
- 3.2 rec · 32 yds
- Scoring chances
- 6.62 TD per 100 targets, from his red-zone usage
- 0.33 TD
- Vegas
- CHI implied 24.8 vs 23.4 in his games (×1.06)
- +3% volume, +12% TD rate
- Market prior
- Preseason TE3 in FFC ADP → 12.1 PPG, 29% weight at 5 games
- +1.5 half-PPR pts (6.8 → 8.3)
- Context (not in projection)
- ATL allows 1.03× league TE points (rank 14 of 32)
| Opponent | at ATLCHI on the road |
|---|---|
| Kickoff | Sun 1:00 PM ET |
| Implied total | 24.8CHI · consensus line |
| ATL vs TE | Allows the 14th-most fantasy points to TEs1.03× the league average · context — not in the projection |
| Red zone | 21% of CHI's targets inside the 206 of 28, through Week 5 · 2 inside the 10 |
| Rest of season | TE7 of 53 · 9.0 PPGHalf-PPR points per game, market prior included · 11 games left through Week 17 · bye in Week 10 |
Trade value 5 of 100
Redraft chart, Weeks 6–17, 12-team Half-PPR: rank 70 of 85 players above replacement.
See the trade value chart Put him in a trade
Compare him with another player
Built from stats through Week 5, consensus line as of Sun, Oct 11, 8:19 PM ET, no Week 6 injury report yet, so no designation is applied. Game-day inactives are not in the model. Market prior: preseason ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator.
2026 season · the games so far
2026 so far
Through Week 5 · Week 5 in progress — 13 of 15 games final · nflverse stats as of
- PPR pts / game
- 4.8
- TE rank
- TE42
- of 91 with 2+ games
- Games
- 5
- CHI
| Scoring | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | 11.0 | 2.2 |
| Half-PPR | 17.5 | 3.5 |
| PPR | 24.0 | 4.8 |
TE rank is by PPR points per game among TEs with 2 or more games.
Game log
Swipe for every stat and the calculator link
| Wk | Opp | PPR pts | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Tgt share | Snap % | Calculator |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | GB | 3.9 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 13% | — | Score this game |
| 4 | NYJ | 11.7 | 9 | 6 | 57 | 0 | 29% | 92% | Score this game |
| 3 | PHI | 7.1 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 12% | 79% | Score this game |
| 2 | MIN | 1.3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10% | 86% | Score this game |
| 1 | CAR | 0.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8% | 87% | Score this game |
PPR pts is nflverse's full-PPR total for the game. "Score this game" opens the fantasy point calculator with that exact line loaded, to re-score it in Standard, Half-PPR or your league's settings. A dash means nflverse has no figure for that game yet.
Usage trend
Swipe for the season and the change
| Per game | Last 3 (Wks 3–5) | Season | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snap share | 86% | 86% | −1 |
| Targets per game | 6.0 | 4.6 | +1.4 |
| Target share | 18% | 14% | +4 |
| Air-yards share | 14% | 11% | +2 |
| PPR points per game | 7.6 | 4.8 | +2.8 |
Shares are team-relative and averaged per game. Snap share leaves out Week 5: no snap count has been published for that game yet.
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP (July 2026) | 53.4 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 53 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 8.5 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | +1.2 | nflverse |
| Target share | 16.6% | nflverse |
| Target share, last 3 games (2025) | 29.2% | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 48 | Sleeper |
xFP (expected fantasy points) is what a typical player would score with the same targets, carries and field position. FPOE (points over expected) is actual points minus xFP, per game.
The consensus read
Colston Loveland was drafted as the TE3 — ADP 53.4 — in July 2026. His 8.5 half-PPR points per game in 2025 clears the TE starter line, with targets trending up late in that year.
- ADP 53.4
- Overall ADP rank 53
- Sleeper search rank 48
- Fantasy points / game 8.5
The edge case — what had to be true
Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read. Check them against what has actually happened since.
-
Checkpoint
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
29.2% last 3 vs 16.6% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Colston Loveland's late-2025 target share is the new baseline, not a blip
Poor pick if instead
Colston Loveland's late-2025 target spike is small-sample noise that reverts
-
Checkpoint
Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025)
+1.2 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Colston Loveland's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Poor pick if instead
Colston Loveland's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
Next step
Everything for Week 6, on one page.
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