Kyren Williams: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
At 14.4 half-PPR points per game in 2025, Kyren Williams outproduced what a RB16 draft slot usually returns — that was the draft-day value case in July 2026. His target share trended up over his last three games of 2025.
This week's projection is in the Week 5 card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
Kyren Williams
RB · Los Angeles Rams
This week · Week 5
Projected 15.8 half-PPR points in Week 5, with a likely range of 8.6 to 24.8.
vs BUF · Mon 8:15 PM ET
Forecast 15.8 Half-PPR points: the Vegas line adds 1.6, the matchup nothing. Show how it is built.
| Step | Points | Running total |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline: His role and efficiency over 4 games, with his preseason RB15 ADP at 33% weight, at his usual line | 14.2 | 14.2 |
| Vegas: LAR implied 28.0 vs 23.8 in his games | +1.6 | 15.8 |
| Matchup: BUF 5th softest vs RB: already in the Vegas line | 0.0 | 15.8 |
| Availability: No designation, no teammate ruled out | 0.0 | 15.8 |
| Projection | 15.8 | 15.8 |
Each step is the change from switching that factor on, in this order, so the steps add up to the projection. The matchup adds nothing with a line: the model's backtest found the line already prices the defense.
- Helps: LAR is implied for 28.0 points, 3rd-highest of 30 teams with a line this week.
- Helps: BUF ranks 5th of 32 defenses in fantasy points allowed to RBs, where 1st allows the most (context, not in the projection).
- Context: played indoors, so weather is not a factor.
Season so far · through Week 4
- Half-PPR/g
- 19.8 half-PPR points a game over 4 games, 79.2 in all.
- PPR rank
- RB5 of 91 RBs with 2 or more games, by PPR points per game.
- Games
- 4 games with a stat line through Week 4.
- car/g
- 13.5 carries per team game this season.
PPR 89.7 (22.4/g) · Std 68.7 (17.2/g)
Game log · half-PPR
Half-PPR points by week, oldest first: Week 1 SF 14.0, Week 2 NYG 14.7, Week 3 DEN 18.8, Week 4 PHI 31.7. Bye in Week 11.
This week · LAR vs BUF
Week 5 projection
- Half‑PPR
- 15.8
- PPR
- 17.5
- Standard
- 14.1
Range 8.6–24.8
Floor to ceiling in half-PPR points: the 10th to 90th percentile of how far past weeks landed from a projection like this one. About 4 in 5 landed inside it.
Projected line: 13.5 car · 66 rush yds · 3.46 rec · 27 rec yds · 0.83 TD
Show the math
- Volume
- 51% of LAR's carries × 26.5 a game · 12% of LAR's targets × 33.3 a game
- 14.6 carries · 4.6 targets
- Efficiency
- 79% catch · 6.0 yds/target · 4.9 yds/carry
- 3.7 rec · 100 yds
- Scoring chances
- 3.40 TD per 100 carries, 3.09 per 100 targets, from his red-zone usage
- 0.90 TD
- Vegas
- LAR implied 28.0 vs 23.8 in his games (×1.18)
- +8% volume, +38% TD rate
- Market prior
- Preseason RB15 in FFC ADP → 13.3 PPG, 33% weight at 4 games
- −1.2 half-PPR pts (17.0 → 15.8)
- Context (not in projection)
- BUF allows 1.16× league RB points (rank 5 of 32)
| Opponent | vs BUFLAR at home |
|---|---|
| Kickoff | Mon 8:15 PM ET |
| Implied total | 28.0LAR · consensus line |
| BUF vs RB | Allows the 5th-most fantasy points to RBs1.16× the league average · context — not in the projection |
| Red zone | 68% of LAR's carries inside the 2013 of 19, through Week 4 · 3 inside the 5 |
| Rest of season | RB10 of 58 · 14.0 PPGHalf-PPR points per game, market prior included · 12 games left through Week 17 · bye in Week 11 |
Trade value 41 of 100
Redraft chart, Weeks 5–17, 12-team Half-PPR: rank 18 of 84 players above replacement.
See the trade value chart Put him in a trade
Compare him with another player
Built from stats through Week 4, consensus line as of Mon, Oct 5, 7:31 AM ET, no Week 5 injury report yet, so no designation is applied. Game-day inactives are not in the model. Market prior: preseason ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator.
2026 season · the games so far
2026 so far
Through Week 4 · Week 4 in progress — 15 of 16 games final · nflverse stats as of
- PPR pts / game
- 22.4
- RB rank
- RB5
- of 91 with 2+ games
- Games
- 4
- LAR
| Scoring | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | 68.7 | 17.2 |
| Half-PPR | 79.2 | 19.8 |
| PPR | 89.7 | 22.4 |
RB rank is by PPR points per game among RBs with 2 or more games.
Game log
Swipe for every stat and the calculator link
| Wk | Opp | PPR pts | Carries | Rush yds | Rush TD | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Snap % | Calculator |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | PHI | 36.7 | 16 | 80 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 67 | 0 | 83% | Score this game |
| 3 | DEN | 21.8 | 15 | 88 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 70 | 0 | 71% | Score this game |
| 2 | NYG | 15.7 | 12 | 85 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 55% | Score this game |
| 1 | SF | 15.5 | 11 | 41 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 64% | Score this game |
PPR pts is nflverse's full-PPR total for the game. "Score this game" opens the fantasy point calculator with that exact line loaded, to re-score it in Standard, Half-PPR or your league's settings. A dash means nflverse has no figure for that game yet.
Usage trend
Swipe for the season and the change
| Per game | Last 3 (Wks 2–4) | Season | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snap share | 70% | 68% | +1 |
| Carries per game | 14.3 | 13.5 | +0.8 |
| Targets per game | 7.3 | 6.3 | +1.1 |
| Target share | 16% | 15% | +1 |
| PPR points per game | 24.7 | 22.4 | +2.3 |
Shares are team-relative and averaged per game.
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP (July 2026) | 31.4 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 33 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 14.4 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | +3.1 | nflverse |
| Target share | 8.1% | nflverse |
| Target share, last 3 games (2025) | 11.4% | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 26 | Sleeper |
xFP (expected fantasy points) is what a typical player would score with the same targets, carries and field position. FPOE (points over expected) is actual points minus xFP, per game.
The consensus read
Kyren Williams was drafted as the RB16 — ADP 31.4 — in July 2026. His 14.4 half-PPR points per game in 2025 clears the RB starter line, with targets trending up late in that year.
- ADP 31.4
- Overall ADP rank 33
- Sleeper search rank 26
- Fantasy points / game 14.4
The edge case — what had to be true
Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read. Check them against what has actually happened since.
-
Checkpoint
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
11.4% last 3 vs 8.1% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Kyren Williams's late-2025 target share is the new baseline, not a blip
Poor pick if instead
Kyren Williams's late-2025 target spike is small-sample noise that reverts
-
Checkpoint
Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025)
+3.1 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Kyren Williams's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Poor pick if instead
Kyren Williams's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
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