What was Terry McLaurin's 2026 fantasy football draft ADP?

Terry McLaurin (Wide receiver, WAS) was drafted at ADP 35.6, the WR18 by ADP, in Half-PPR leagues during the July 2026 draft season (Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot, Jul 15, 2026). That is a draft-day figure, not a current one — ADP stops moving once the season starts.

What had to go right for Terry McLaurin in 2026?

From the July 2026 draft-day read: Terry McLaurin's late-2025 target share is the new baseline, not a blip — checkpoint: Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025) (then at 24.8% last 3 vs 23.2% season (2025)).

What was the risk in drafting Terry McLaurin in 2026?

From the July 2026 draft-day read: Terry McLaurin's late-2025 target uptick is small-sample noise that reverts — checkpoint: Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025) (then at 24.8% last 3 vs 23.2% season (2025)).

Wide receiver · WAS · July 2026 draft-day read

Terry McLaurin: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook

Terry McLaurin's 9.5 half-PPR points per game in 2025 sit below what a WR18 draft price usually buys — July 2026 drafters were paying for projection, not the previous season's line. His target share trended up over his last three games of 2025.

This week's projection is in the Week 5 card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.

high confidence ADP 35.6 · WR18 · Half-PPR · draft ADP as of Jul 15, 2026

Terry McLaurin

WR · Washington Commanders

Week 5 statusStatus unknown · Missed Week 4 (hamstring) — no Week 5 game status yet (Week 5 practice report: did not practice)
Week 5 injury reportInjury report — hamstring, did not practice

This week · Week 5

Projected 10.3 half-PPR points if he plays in Week 5, with a likely range of 3.8 to 19.1.

vs NYG · Sun 1:00 PM ET

How the 10.3-point Half-PPR projection is built, one step at a time
Step	Points	Running total
Baseline: His role and efficiency over 3 games, with his preseason WR22 ADP at 40% weight, at his usual line	9.8	9.8
Vegas: WAS implied 23.0 vs 19.3 in his games	+0.4	10.2
Matchup: NYG 13th softest vs WR: already in the Vegas line	0.0	10.2
Availability: Jaylin Lane ruled out: his share +4%; Status unknown: projected as if he plays	+0.1	10.3
Projection	10.3	10.3

Each step is the change from switching that factor on, in this order, so the steps add up to the projection. The matchup adds nothing with a line: the model's backtest found the line already prices the defense.

Context: WAS is implied for 23.0 points, 12th-highest of 28 teams with a line this week.
Context: NYG ranks 13th of 32 defenses in fantasy points allowed to WRs, where 1st allows the most (context, not in the projection).
Context: kickoff-hour forecast E 12 mph, under the 15 mph wind line.

Season so far · through Week 4

Half-PPR/g: 8.4 half-PPR points a game over 3 games, 25.1 in all.; 8.4; 25.1 total
PPR rank: WR42 of 145 WRs with 2 or more games, by PPR points per game.; WR42; of 145
Games: 3 games with a stat line through Week 4.; 3
tgt share: 17.5% of his team's targets this season, per team game.; 17.5%

PPR 30.1 (10.0/g) · Std 20.1 (6.7/g)

Game log · half-PPR

This week · WAS vs NYG

Week 5 projection

Week 5 injury report Injury report — hamstring, did not practice

Week 5 status Status unknownMissed Week 4 (hamstring) — no Week 5 game status yet (Week 5 practice report: did not practice)

Half‑PPR: 10.3
PPR: 12.2
Standard: 8.3

Range 3.8–19.1

Floor to ceiling in half-PPR points: the 10th to 90th percentile of how far past weeks landed from a projection like this one. About 4 in 5 landed inside it.

Projected line: 7.2 tgt · 3.96 rec · 55 yds · 0.46 TD

Show the math

Volume: 22% of WAS's targets × 28.5 a game; 7.1 targets
Efficiency: 56% catch · 7.8 yds/target; 3.9 rec · 54 yds
Scoring chances: 4.73 TD per 100 targets, from his red-zone usage; 0.45 TD
Vegas: WAS implied 23.0 vs 19.3 in his games (×1.19); +9% volume, +42% TD rate
Market prior: Preseason WR22 in FFC ADP → 10.7 PPG, 40% weight at 3 games; +0.2 half-PPR pts (10.1 → 10.3)
Status: Missed Week 4 (hamstring) — no Week 5 game status yet (Week 5 practice report: did not practice); not applied: projected as if he plays
Vacated share: Jaylin Lane ruled out; +4% share
Context (not in projection): NYG allows 1.04× league WR points (rank 13 of 32)

Week 5 matchup facts
Opponent	vs NYGWAS at home
Kickoff	Sun 1:00 PM ET
Implied total	23.0WAS · consensus line
Wind	No wind flagKickoff-hour forecast: E 12 mph
NYG vs WR	Allows the 13th-most fantasy points to WRs1.04× the league average · context — not in the projection
Red zone	14% of WAS's targets inside the 202 of 14, through Week 4 · 2 inside the 10
Rest of season	WR23 of 100 · 9.9 PPGHalf-PPR points per game, market prior included · 12 games left through Week 17 · bye in Week 7

Trade value 5 of 100

Redraft chart, Weeks 5–17, 12-team Half-PPR: rank 69 of 84 players above replacement.

See the trade value chart Put him in a trade

Compare him with another player

Built from stats through Week 4, consensus line as of Thu, Oct 8, 8:25 PM ET, Week 5 injury report. Game-day inactives are not in the model. Market prior: preseason ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator.

2026 season · the games so far

2026 so far

Through Week 4 · nflverse stats as of Oct 8, 2026

PPR pts / game: 10.0
WR rank: WR42; of 145 with 2+ games
Games: 3; WAS

Terry McLaurin 2026 fantasy points by scoring format, through Week 4
Scoring	Total	Per game
Standard	20.1	6.7
Half-PPR	25.1	8.4
PPR	30.1	10.0

WR rank is by PPR points per game among WRs with 2 or more games.

Game log

Swipe for every stat and the calculator link

Terry McLaurin 2026 game log, most recent week first
Wk	Opp	PPR pts	Targets	Rec	Rec yds	Rec TD	Tgt share	Snap %	Calculator
4	IND	Did not play
3	SEA	19.7	9	6	77	1	30%	75%	Score this game
2	DAL	7.0	9	2	50	0	26%	70%	Score this game
1	PHI	3.4	4	2	14	0	14%	87%	Score this game

PPR pts is nflverse's full-PPR total for the game. "Score this game" opens the fantasy point calculator with that exact line loaded, to re-score it in Standard, Half-PPR or your league's settings. A dash means nflverse has no figure for that game yet. "Did not play" means his team played but nflverse has no stat line for him, which is usually an injury or an inactive game day; the injury designation shows only for the week the latest report covers.

Usage trend

Terry McLaurin usage per game this season
Per game	Season (Wks 1–3)
Snap share	77%
Targets per game	7.3
Target share	23%
Air-yards share	31%
PPR points per game	10.0

3 games so far, so there is no recent-vs-season split yet: it starts once he has played more than 3. Shares are team-relative and averaged per game.

Draft-day record · July 2026

The July 2026 draft-day read

This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools

By the numbers

The numbers behind the read

Cited Terry McLaurin metrics and their data sources
Metric	Value	Source
ADP (July 2026)	35.6	Fantasy Football Calculator
Overall ADP rank (July 2026)	36	Fantasy Football Calculator
Fantasy points / game	9.5	nflverse
Points over expected (FPOE)	+0.3	nflverse
Target share	23.2%	nflverse
Target share, last 3 games (2025)	24.8%	nflverse
Sleeper search rank (July 2026)	56	Sleeper

xFP (expected fantasy points) is what a typical player would score with the same targets, carries and field position. FPOE (points over expected) is actual points minus xFP, per game.

Chalk

The consensus read

Terry McLaurin was drafted as the WR18 — ADP 35.6 — in July 2026. His 9.5 half-PPR points per game in 2025 clears the WR starter line, with targets trending up late in that year.

ADP 35.6
Overall ADP rank 36
Sleeper search rank 56
Fantasy points / game 9.5

Sharp

The edge case — what had to be true

Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read. Check them against what has actually happened since.

Checkpoint

Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)

24.8% last 3 vs 23.2% season (2025) · as of July 2026

Strong pick if you believed

Terry McLaurin's late-2025 target share is the new baseline, not a blip

Poor pick if instead

Terry McLaurin's late-2025 target uptick is small-sample noise that reverts
Checkpoint

Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025)

+0.3 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026

Steady: within half a point a game of expectation, so his usage explains his scoring and this checkpoint does not lean either way.

Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).

FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.

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