Weekly rankings

Weekly WR Rankings

Every wide receiver with a game left this week, ranked by projected points in your scoring — with the math on every row.

Week 10 (updated Sat Nov 14): the top projected WRs are Jaxon Smith-Njigba (16.0 half-PPR), CeeDee Lamb (15.7) and Ja'Marr Chase (15.7).

Week 10 · updated Nov 14, 2026

Week 10 WR rankings

Top of the WR board in Half-PPR: Jaxon Smith-Njigba 16.0, CeeDee Lamb 15.7 and Ja'Marr Chase 15.7.

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Scoring

Half-PPRChanges are saved in this browser.

Custom scoringOpen

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0.5 per catch, 4-pt passing TD, −2 per INT.

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Points

Per catch

Pass TD

Lost per INT

TE bonus / catch

Per first down

Not supported yet: 100- and 300-yard bonuses, long-TD bonuses and return touchdowns.

Wide receivers in Half-PPR, highest projection first; a new tier starts wherever neighbours are 1.0+ points apart. 75 players.

Swipe for range, volume, Vegas and matchup

#	Player					Kickoff ET	(context)
1T1	Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA at LV	16.0	9.6–24.8	10.1 tgt	23.5 (×0.99)	Sun 4:05 PM	9th softest (1.08×)
Show the math Volume. 33% of SEA's targets × 30.8 a game 10.1 targets Efficiency. 69% catch · 9.4 yds/target 6.9 rec · 98 yds Scoring chances. 4.06 TD per 100 targets, from his red-zone usage 0.47 TD Vegas. SEA implied 23.5 vs 23.8 in his games (×0.99) −1% volume, −3% TD rate Market prior. Preseason WR3 in FFC ADP → 15.7 PPG, 18% weight at 9 games +0.0 half-PPR pts (16.0 → 16.0) Context (not in projection). LV allows 1.08× league WR points (9th softest of 32) Projected line. 10.1 tgt · 6.93 rec · 96 rec yds · 0.46 rec TD · 0.3 car · 2 rush yds · 4.7 first downs Points. 16.0 in Half-PPR, range 9.6–24.8. The market prior is blended in Half-PPR and scales the whole line, so it carries into every format.
2	CeeDee LambDAL vs SF	15.7	9.3–24.5	11.0 tgt	25.8 (×0.94)	Sun 4:25 PM	6th toughest (0.91×)
Show the math+3% share: Jonathan Mingo out Volume. 32% of DAL's targets × 35.1 a game 11.0 targets Efficiency. 62% catch · 8.3 yds/target 6.9 rec · 92 yds Scoring chances. 5.02 TD per 100 targets, from his red-zone usage 0.52 TD Vegas. DAL implied 25.8 vs 27.3 in his games (×0.94) −3% volume, −11% TD rate Market prior. Preseason WR5 in FFC ADP → 15.5 PPG, 18% weight at 9 games +0.0 half-PPR pts (15.7 → 15.7) Vacated share. Jonathan Mingo ruled out +3% share Context (not in projection). SF allows 0.91× league WR points (6th toughest of 32) Projected line. 11.0 tgt · 6.85 rec · 91 rec yds · 0.52 rec TD · 0.2 car · 1 rush yds · 0.06 fumbles lost · 4.1 first downs Points. 15.7 in Half-PPR, range 9.3–24.5. The market prior is blended in Half-PPR and scales the whole line, so it carries into every format.
3	Ja'Marr ChaseCIN vs PIT	15.7	9.3–24.5	9.9 tgt	26.5 (×1.00)	Sun 8:20 PM	10th toughest (0.94×)
Show the math Volume. 28% of CIN's targets × 33.0 a game 9.3 targets Efficiency. 70% catch · 8.7 yds/target 6.5 rec · 82 yds Scoring chances. 5.68 TD per 100 targets, from his red-zone usage 0.57 TD Vegas. CIN implied 26.5 vs 26.5 in his games (×1.00) +0% volume, +0% TD rate Market prior. Preseason WR1 in FFC ADP → 19.4 PPG, 20% weight at 8 games +0.9 half-PPR pts (14.8 → 15.7) Context (not in projection). PIT allows 0.94× league WR points (10th toughest of 32) Projected line. 9.9 tgt · 6.92 rec · 86 rec yds · 0.60 rec TD · 0.1 car · 1 rush yds · 4.3 first downs Points. 15.7 in Half-PPR, range 9.3–24.5. The market prior is blended in Half-PPR and scales the whole line, so it carries into every format.
4T2	Chris OlaveNO vs CAR	12.9	6.5–21.8	9.2 tgt	25.5 (×1.14)	Sun 1:00 PM	12th toughest (0.96×)
Show the math Volume. 27% of NO's targets × 31.6 a game 9.3 targets Efficiency. 64% catch · 7.9 yds/target 5.9 rec · 75 yds Scoring chances. 3.90 TD per 100 targets, from his red-zone usage 0.44 TD Vegas. NO implied 25.5 vs 22.3 in his games (×1.14) +7% volume, +31% TD rate Market prior. Preseason WR11 in FFC ADP → 12.6 PPG, 20% weight at 8 games −0.1 half-PPR pts (13.0 → 12.9) Context (not in projection). CAR allows 0.96× league WR points (12th toughest of 32) Projected line. 9.2 tgt · 5.86 rec · 74 rec yds · 0.44 rec TD · 0.1 car · 0 rush yds · 3.6 first downs Points. 12.9 in Half-PPR, range 6.5–21.8. The market prior is blended in Half-PPR and scales the whole line, so it carries into every format.
5	Amon-Ra St. BrownDET vs NE	12.6	6.1–21.4	8.6 tgt	26.0 (×0.94)	Sun 9:30 AM	2nd softest (1.16×)
Show the mathQuestionable Volume. 30% of DET's targets × 31.9 a game 8.1 targets Efficiency. 70% catch · 8.1 yds/target 5.7 rec · 66 yds Scoring chances. 5.57 TD per 100 targets, from his red-zone usage 0.40 TD Vegas. DET implied 26.0 vs 27.8 in his games (×0.94) −3% volume, −13% TD rate Market prior. Preseason WR4 in FFC ADP → 15.6 PPG, 20% weight at 8 games +0.8 half-PPR pts (11.8 → 12.6) Status. Questionable ×0.85 Context (not in projection). NE allows 1.16× league WR points (2nd softest of 32) Projected line. 8.6 tgt · 6.01 rec · 69 rec yds · 0.43 rec TD · 0.2 car · 1 rush yds · 3.6 first downs Points. 12.6 in Half-PPR, range 6.1–21.4. The market prior is blended in Half-PPR and scales the whole line, so it carries into every format.
6	Drake LondonATL vs KC	11.9	5.4–20.7	8.5 tgt	22.0 (×0.97)	Sun 1:00 PM	2nd toughest (0.79×)
Show the math+17% share: Zachariah Branch out Volume. 26% of ATL's targets × 30.6 a game 7.9 targets Efficiency. 63% catch · 8.6 yds/target 5.0 rec · 69 yds Scoring chances. 3.65 TD per 100 targets, from his red-zone usage 0.26 TD Vegas. ATL implied 22.0 vs 22.7 in his games (×0.97) −2% volume, −6% TD rate Market prior. Preseason WR5 in FFC ADP → 15.5 PPG, 18% weight at 9 games +0.8 half-PPR pts (11.1 → 11.9) Vacated share. Zachariah Branch ruled out +17% share Context (not in projection). KC allows 0.79× league WR points (2nd toughest of 32) Projected line. 8.5 tgt · 5.33 rec · 74 rec yds · 0.28 rec TD · 0.1 car · 1 rush yds · 3.5 first downs Points. 11.9 in Half-PPR, range 5.4–20.7. The market prior is blended in Half-PPR and scales the whole line, so it carries into every format.
7	Tetairoa McMillanCAR at NO	11.5	5.1–20.3	7.9 tgt	23.5 (×1.06)	Sun 1:00 PM	15th toughest (0.98×)
Show the math Volume. 23% of CAR's targets × 32.8 a game 7.9 targets Efficiency. 63% catch · 8.2 yds/target 5.0 rec · 66 yds Scoring chances. 4.84 TD per 100 targets, from his red-zone usage 0.42 TD Vegas. CAR implied 23.5 vs 22.1 in his games (×1.06) +3% volume, +13% TD rate Market prior. Preseason WR17 in FFC ADP → 11.2 PPG, 20% weight at 8 games −0.1 half-PPR pts (11.6 → 11.5) Context (not in projection). NO allows 0.98× league WR points (15th toughest of 32) Projected line. 7.9 tgt · 4.96 rec · 65 rec yds · 0.42 rec TD · 0 rush yds · 3.4 first downs Points. 11.5 in Half-PPR, range 5.1–20.3. The market prior is blended in Half-PPR and scales the whole line, so it carries into every format.
8	Justin JeffersonMIN at GB	11.5	5.0–20.3	9.0 tgt	19.5 (×0.88)	Sun 1:00 PM	7th softest (1.09×)
Show the math+5% share: Jauan Jennings out Volume. 27% of MIN's targets × 31.5 a game 8.3 targets Efficiency. 57% catch · 7.3 yds/target 4.8 rec · 62 yds Scoring chances. 4.59 TD per 100 targets, from his red-zone usage 0.33 TD Vegas. MIN implied 19.5 vs 22.1 in his games (×0.88) −6% volume, −22% TD rate Market prior. Preseason WR6 in FFC ADP → 14.4 PPG, 22% weight at 7 games +0.9 half-PPR pts (10.6 → 11.5) Vacated share. Jauan Jennings ruled out +5% share Context (not in projection). GB allows 1.09× league WR points (7th softest of 32) Projected line. 9.0 tgt · 5.19 rec · 67 rec yds · 0.36 rec TD · 0.1 car · 1 rush yds · 3.3 first downs Points. 11.5 in Half-PPR, range 5.0–20.3. The market prior is blended in Half-PPR and scales the whole line, so it carries into every format.
9	Tee HigginsCIN vs PIT	11.5	5.0–20.3	6.8 tgt	26.5 (×1.00)	Sun 8:20 PM	10th toughest (0.94×)
Show the math Volume. 20% of CIN's targets × 33.0 a game 6.9 targets Efficiency. 70% catch · 9.7 yds/target 4.8 rec · 68 yds Scoring chances. 5.33 TD per 100 targets, from his red-zone usage 0.39 TD Vegas. CIN implied 26.5 vs 26.5 in his games (×1.00) +0% volume, +0% TD rate Market prior. Preseason WR18 in FFC ADP → 11.0 PPG, 20% weight at 8 games −0.1 half-PPR pts (11.6 → 11.5) Context (not in projection). PIT allows 0.94× league WR points (10th toughest of 32) Projected line. 6.8 tgt · 4.76 rec · 67 rec yds · 0.39 rec TD · 0 rush yds · 3.5 first downs Points. 11.5 in Half-PPR, range 5.0–20.3. The market prior is blended in Half-PPR and scales the whole line, so it carries into every format.
10	Zay FlowersBAL vs LAC	11.4	4.9–20.2	7.9 tgt	21.5 (×0.98)	Mon 8:15 PM	5th softest (1.11×)
Show the math Volume. 28% of BAL's targets × 28.2 a game 7.7 targets Efficiency. 63% catch · 8.1 yds/target 4.9 rec · 69 yds Scoring chances. 3.85 TD per 100 targets, from his red-zone usage 0.31 TD Vegas. BAL implied 21.5 vs 22.0 in his games (×0.98) −1% volume, −4% TD rate Market prior. Preseason WR12 in FFC ADP → 12.1 PPG, 20% weight at 8 games +0.2 half-PPR pts (11.2 → 11.4) Context (not in projection). LAC allows 1.11× league WR points (5th softest of 32) Projected line. 7.9 tgt · 5.04 rec · 66 rec yds · 0.30 rec TD · 0.7 car · 4 rush yds · 2.9 first downs Points. 11.4 in Half-PPR, range 4.9–20.2. The market prior is blended in Half-PPR and scales the whole line, so it carries into every format.
11	Christian WatsonGB vs MIN	11.2	4.8–20.0	6.7 tgt	22.5 (×0.95)	Sun 1:00 PM	3rd toughest (0.81×)
Show the math Volume. 22% of GB's targets × 31.4 a game 6.8 targets Efficiency. 67% catch · 10.7 yds/target 4.6 rec · 75 yds Scoring chances. 3.87 TD per 100 targets, from his red-zone usage 0.29 TD Vegas. GB implied 22.5 vs 23.6 in his games (×0.95) −2% volume, −9% TD rate Market prior. Preseason WR25 in FFC ADP → 10.3 PPG, 18% weight at 9 games −0.2 half-PPR pts (11.4 → 11.2) Context (not in projection). MIN allows 0.81× league WR points (3rd toughest of 32) Projected line. 6.7 tgt · 4.50 rec · 73 rec yds · 0.28 rec TD · 0 rush yds · 2.9 first downs Points. 11.2 in Half-PPR, range 4.8–20.0. The market prior is blended in Half-PPR and scales the whole line, so it carries into every format.
12	Nico CollinsHOU at CLE	11.1	4.6–19.9	7.1 tgt	22.5 (×0.97)	Sun 1:00 PM	9th toughest (0.93×)
Show the math+12% share: Jaylin Noel, Marvin Harrison Jr. out Volume. 19% of HOU's targets × 31.6 a game 6.5 targets Efficiency. 65% catch · 8.9 yds/target 4.3 rec · 60 yds Scoring chances. 4.74 TD per 100 targets, from his red-zone usage 0.34 TD Vegas. HOU implied 22.5 vs 23.2 in his games (×0.97) −2% volume, −6% TD rate Market prior. Preseason WR8 in FFC ADP → 13.8 PPG, 25% weight at 6 games +1.0 half-PPR pts (10.1 → 11.1) Vacated share. Jaylin Noel, Marvin Harrison Jr. ruled out +12% share Context (not in projection). CLE allows 0.93× league WR points (9th toughest of 32) Projected line. 7.1 tgt · 4.68 rec · 64 rec yds · 0.36 rec TD · 0.3 car · 2 rush yds · 3.1 first downs Points. 11.1 in Half-PPR, range 4.6–19.9. The market prior is blended in Half-PPR and scales the whole line, so it carries into every format.

Showing 12 of 75.

is projected points in your scoring. is the 10th to 90th percentile of what players at the position actually scored around projections like it in 2024–25. marks where tier 2 starts.

is projected targets (tgt), (car) or pass attempts (att). is his team's implied total and how it compares with the games behind his numbers (×1.08 = 8% higher).

is where the opponent ranks against the position in fantasy points allowed: 1st toughest allows the fewest, 1st softest the most, and 0.85× is 15% fewer than the league average. It is context — not in the projection — except in a game with no line yet, where it stands in for Vegas.

Week 10 status unknown: 1 player stays ranked as if they play, each with a chip on his row. Who and why

Brenen Thompson (WR, LAC) missed Weeks 8–9 (hamstring). They stay ranked as if they play, with a chip on the row, until a Week 10 report settles it.

Lines as of Sat, Nov 14, 6:57 PM ET · stats through Week 9 · injury report: Week 10 (applied). The “updated” date at the top is the oldest of the three.

Week 9 recap : how last week’s projections did against the real results, next to a season-average baseline.

Already kicked off when this snapshot was taken, so not ranked: WAS at NYG.

On bye in Week 10: CHI, DEN, PHI and TB.

Ruled out, so not ranked: Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR, HOU), Mike Evans (WR, SF) and Carnell Tate (WR, TEN).

Off the active roster on nflverse's weekly rosters, so not ranked: Kendrick Bourne (WR, ARI, injured reserve), Michael Wilson (WR, ARI, injured reserve), Jayden Reed (WR, GB, injured reserve), Jaylin Noel (WR, HOU, injured reserve), Alec Pierce (WR, IND, injured reserve), Tyquan Thornton (WR, KC, injured reserve), Davante Adams (WR, LAR, injured reserve), Puka Nacua (WR, LAR, injured reserve), Romeo Doubs (WR, NE, injured reserve), Michael Pittman (WR, PIT, injured reserve) and Roman Wilson (WR, PIT, injured reserve).

Designations from the Week 10 injury report are applied: Questionable ×0.85, Doubtful ×0.70, and teammates of a player ruled out absorb a quarter of his share.

Injured reserve, practice-squad and game-day inactive statuses come from nflverse's Week 10 weekly rosters. A player who missed his team's last game is flagged "status unknown" until a Week 10 report settles it.

Method

How each projection is built

The model projects a stat line, not a point total: targets, catches, yards, touchdowns, attempts. Points come from scoring that line with your league's rules — the same arithmetic as the fantasy points calculator — so Standard, Half-PPR, PPR and custom scoring are all the same projection. Five named factors build the line:

Volume. His share of his team's targets, carries and pass attempts, with recent games counting most (last week 1, the week before 0.8, then 0.64…), each 2025 game counting a tenth of a 2026 game, and one game at a typical share for the position — times how often his team throws and runs, which is mostly the league average plus a slow team signal (every team's number carries 12 games of league average). Underdogs throw a little more.
Efficiency. Catch rate and yards per target, carry and attempt, pulled toward the league rate for his position so a two-game hot streak doesn't carry the number.
Scoring chances. Touchdowns come from where he gets the ball: targets and carries inside the 20 and inside the 5, times the league's touchdown rate from each zone. Last season's and this season's actual touchdowns get almost no weight, because red-zone usage predicts next week's touchdowns better than past touchdowns do.
Vegas. His team's implied total this week against the implied totals of the games his numbers come from. A 10% higher total means about 5% more volume and 21% more touchdowns. In the backtest, this was the single most valuable input.
Market prior. His preseason ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator, turned into last season's points per game at that positional rank, and counted as 2 games of evidence: 40% of the number after three games, 17% after ten.

On top: his own designation (Questionable ×0.85, Doubtful ×0.70, Out is not ranked), a boost when a same-position teammate is ruled out (the others absorb a quarter of his share), and a 10% pull toward his plain season average as a sanity check.

Defense vs position is shown, not used. Once the Vegas line is in, adding the opponent's points allowed made the backtest no better and sometimes worse — the line already prices the matchup. So the DvP column is context. The one exception is a game with no line yet, where the matchup stands in for Vegas and the row says so.

Kickers and defenses. Kickers use 5.20 + 0.125 × team implied total, +0.5 in a dome, −0.7 outdoors in 15+ mph wind. Defenses are the DST streaming rankings, unchanged. Both are Standard scoring.

Worked example, straight off the board

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, SEA at LV) tops the WR board at 16.0 Half-PPR points. Here is every factor behind it:

Volume. 33% of SEA's targets × 30.8 a game 10.1 targets
Efficiency. 69% catch · 9.4 yds/target 6.9 rec · 98 yds
Scoring chances. 4.06 TD per 100 targets, from his red-zone usage 0.47 TD
Vegas. SEA implied 23.5 vs 23.8 in his games (×0.99) −1% volume, −3% TD rate
Market prior. Preseason WR3 in FFC ADP → 15.7 PPG, 18% weight at 9 games +0.0 half-PPR pts (16.0 → 16.0)
Context (not in projection). LV allows 1.08× league WR points (9th softest of 32)

Projected line. 10.1 tgt · 6.93 rec · 96 rec yds · 0.46 rec TD · 0.3 car · 2 rush yds · 4.7 first downs. Scored, that is 16.0 in Half-PPR, 19.5 in PPR and 12.5 in Standard.

Track record

How accurate is it?

The formula was fit on 2025 Weeks 4–11 only, then tested week by week on games it had not seen, using only information available before each kickoff: the rest of 2025, and all of 2024 with nothing re-tuned. The comparison is the number most people would otherwise use — each player's season-to-date points per game. Half-PPR.

Swipe for rank correlation and close calls

Test	Average miss	Rank correlation	Close calls right
2025, Weeks 12–18: this model	5.12 pts	0.417	63.9%
2025, Weeks 12–18: season average	5.34 pts	0.369	60.6%
2024, Weeks 4–18 (fully out of sample): this model	5.11 pts	0.475	62.1%
2024, Weeks 4–18 (fully out of sample): season average	5.19 pts	0.428	61.6%

Average miss is the mean absolute error in points (1,365 and 2,863 player-weeks). Rank correlation (Spearman) is how well the order matched each week, 1 being perfect. Close calls are every pair of similar starters at the same position in the same week: how often the higher projection outscored the other.

The honest read: a real but modest edge. It misses by 0.08 to 0.22 points less per player-week than season averages and orders players a little better. Weekly fantasy scoring is mostly noise — a receiver's 10th-to-90th-percentile range spans 15.3 points — so a small, steady margin over a strong baseline is what a real improvement looks like. The rest of the value is in seeing why a number is what it is.

At WR: close calls went right 63.6% of the time in the 2025 test (season average 58.2%) and 58.1% in 2024 (season average 57.9%). Receivers and tight ends are where the model does best: target share and red-zone usage predict more than past points do.

How much a gap means. Over 2024–25, when two similar starters at the same position were this far apart in projection, the higher one outscored the other this often. That is why a tier breaks at a 1-point gap: inside it, the order is a coin flip.

Swipe for how often the higher one won

Gap	Reads as	Higher one won	Pairs
under 1 pt	Coin flip	52%	7,798
1–2 pts	Slight lean	57%	7,128
2–3 pts	Lean	62%	5,862
3–5 pts	Start	68%	7,823
5+ pts	Clear start	78%	5,710

Where it is weakest. Quarterbacks, especially early in the season: over 2024 Weeks 4–7, plain season averages beat it at QB (68.5% of close calls right against 63.6%). And kickers, whose rank correlation is only about 0.24 — better than a kicker's own average (0.17) but close to noise. Defenses hold up better: 0.41 against 0.14 for a defense's own average in 2024.

The range. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile of actual minus projected points across 2024–25, by position: QB −10.9 / +11.2, RB −7.2 / +9.0, WR −6.4 / +8.8, TE −4.7 / +7.5. The floor sits further below than the ceiling sits above the median because weekly scoring is lopsided: most weeks land under the projection, a few land far over it.

The honest part

What these rankings can't see

Role changes. A backup promoted this week has almost no share history, so he projects low until he has a game or two. A starter back from injured reserve is projected on his old games while his stand-ins still carry his absence, and a traded player carries his old team's role. When you know about a role change, trust it over the row.

Late scratches. There is no inactives feed. The last refresh before the early Sunday games reflects Friday's injury designations, so a player ruled out on Sunday morning still shows here.

Scoring the model can't honour. 100- and 300-yard bonuses, long-touchdown bonuses and return touchdowns aren't projected: a bonus pays on one big game, and a projection is an average. The range is measured in Half-PPR and applied around the projection in every format.

The level can drift. Across whole seasons the projections ran about half a point high one year and half a point low the other. The order is what to read; the exact points are an estimate.

Week 18. Teams resting starters make the final week the noisiest of the season, and nothing here models who sits.

A fantasy tool, not a prediction of any one game. FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice. The lines are a median across sportsbooks; no book is named or quoted.

Weekly cheat sheet — the top of every weekly board on one page.
NFL implied team totals — the Vegas board behind every row's Vegas factor.
Target share leaders — the volume behind the receiver and tight end projections.
Red zone & goal-line report — the usage the touchdown projections come from.
Fantasy points allowed by position — the full matchup table behind the DvP column.
NFL injury report — this week's designations, player by player.
Kicker streamers and DST streaming rankings — the full boards behind the K and DST tabs.
Waiver wire risers — players whose role grew last week.

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Next step

Receivers live on volume. See who gets the targets.

2026 target share, air-yards share, WOPR and carries for every WR, TE and RB — season, last 3 weeks or last week, sortable by any column.

Open target share leaders

Chalk & Sharp, our AI start/sit assistant, is coming soon

2026 player stats, snaps, red-zone play-by-play, injuries, schedule and past-game lines via nflverse.com (CC-BY-4.0), stats as of Nov 14, 2026. Preseason ADP (the market prior, Sep 6–11 draft window) via Fantasy Football Calculator. Consensus lines as of Sat, Nov 14, 6:57 PM ET, a median across sportsbooks. Wind via the National Weather Service — NWS does not endorse this site. Players in the pool: 21 QB, 50 RB, 75 WR, 43 TE.