Weekly rankings

Weekly QB Rankings

Every quarterback with a game left this week, ranked by projected points in your scoring — with the math on every row.

Week 4 (updated Wed Sep 30): the top projected QBs are Josh Allen (21.4 half-PPR), Case Keenum (20.7) and Joe Burrow (19.9).

Week 4 · updated Sep 30, 2026

Week 4 QB rankings

Top of the QB board in Half-PPR: Josh Allen 21.4, Case Keenum 20.7 and Joe Burrow 19.9. Quarterbacks are the least reliable part of this model early in the season — see how it has done below.

Week 4 status unknown: Jayden Daniels (QB, WAS) missed Week 3, Caleb Williams (QB, CHI) missed Week 3 and Cooper Rush (QB, ATL) missed Week 3. They stay ranked as if they play, with a chip on the row, until a Week 4 report settles it.

Find a player or team

Scoring

Half-PPRChanges are saved in this browser.

Custom scoringOpen

Start from

0.5 per catch, 4-pt passing TD, −2 per INT.

Add on

Points

Per catch

Pass TD

Lost per INT

TE bonus / catch

Per first down

Not supported yet: 100- and 300-yard bonuses, long-TD bonuses and return touchdowns.

Quarterbacks in Half-PPR, highest projection first; a new tier starts wherever neighbours are 1.0+ points apart. 37 players.

Swipe for range, volume, Vegas and matchup

#	Player	Proj.	Range	Volume	Vegas	Kickoff ET	DvP (context)
1T1	Josh AllenBUF vs NE	21.4	10.5–32.5	31.7 att · 7.0 car	27.5 (×0.99)	Sun 1:00 PM	28th (0.85×)
Show the math Volume. 98% of BUF's pass attempts × 31.3 a game · 24% of BUF's carries × 27.5 a game 30.4 attempts · 6.7 carries Efficiency. 7.7 yds/attempt 238 pass yds Scoring chances. 5.01 TD per 100 attempts 2.16 TD Vegas. BUF implied 27.5 vs 27.7 in his games (×0.99) −0% volume, −1% TD rate Market prior. Preseason QB1 in FFC ADP → 22.8 PPG, 40% weight at 3 games +0.9 half-PPR pts (20.5 → 21.4) Context (not in projection). NE allows 0.85× league QB points (rank 28 of 32) Projected line. 31.7 att · 249 pass yds · 1.60 pass TD · 0.73 INT · 7.0 car · 31 rush yds · 0.63 rush TD · 0.35 fumbles lost · 15.2 first downs Points. 21.4 in Half-PPR, range 10.5–32.5. The market prior is blended in Half-PPR and scales the whole line, so it carries into every format.
2	Case KeenumCHI vs NYJ	20.7	9.8–31.8	33.0 att · 3.4 car	23.3 (×1.19)	Sun 1:00 PM	15th (1.00×)
Show the math Volume. 95% of CHI's pass attempts × 31.7 a game · 11% of CHI's carries × 28.1 a game 33.0 attempts · 3.4 carries Efficiency. 7.1 yds/attempt 235 pass yds Scoring chances. 4.97 TD per 100 attempts 2.65 TD Vegas. CHI implied 23.3 vs 19.5 in his games (×1.19) +9% volume, +42% TD rate Market prior. Not in preseason ADP — no prior Context (not in projection). NYJ allows 1.00× league QB points (rank 15 of 32) Projected line. 33.0 att · 235 pass yds · 2.29 pass TD · 0.53 INT · 3.4 car · 13 rush yds · 0.36 rush TD · 0.17 fumbles lost · 13.5 first downs Points. 20.7 in Half-PPR, range 9.8–31.8. The market prior is blended in Half-PPR and scales the whole line, so it carries into every format.
3	Joe BurrowCIN vs JAX	19.9	9.0–31.0	34.1 att · 2.9 car	27.0 (×1.15)	Sun 1:00 PM	29th (0.83×)
Show the math Volume. 95% of CIN's pass attempts × 32.5 a game · 10% of CIN's carries × 26.0 a game 33.2 attempts · 2.8 carries Efficiency. 7.1 yds/attempt 237 pass yds Scoring chances. 5.29 TD per 100 attempts 2.43 TD Vegas. CIN implied 27.0 vs 23.5 in his games (×1.15) +7% volume, +32% TD rate Market prior. Preseason QB2 in FFC ADP → 20.7 PPG, 40% weight at 3 games +0.5 half-PPR pts (19.3 → 19.9) Context (not in projection). JAX allows 0.83× league QB points (rank 29 of 32) Projected line. 34.1 att · 243 pass yds · 2.35 pass TD · 0.56 INT · 2.9 car · 13 rush yds · 0.15 rush TD · 0.15 fumbles lost · 13.6 first downs Points. 19.9 in Half-PPR, range 9.0–31.0. The market prior is blended in Half-PPR and scales the whole line, so it carries into every format.
4	Tyler ShoughNO vs ATL	19.1	8.3–30.3	30.6 att · 3.9 car	25.0 (×1.17)	Mon 8:15 PM	10th (1.02×)
Show the math Volume. 94% of NO's pass attempts × 32.3 a game · 15% of NO's carries × 26.8 a game 34.0 attempts · 4.3 carries Efficiency. 7.0 yds/attempt 239 pass yds Scoring chances. 5.12 TD per 100 attempts 2.72 TD Vegas. NO implied 25.0 vs 21.3 in his games (×1.17) +8% volume, +38% TD rate Market prior. Preseason QB20 in FFC ADP → 15.9 PPG, 40% weight at 3 games −2.1 half-PPR pts (21.3 → 19.1) Context (not in projection). ATL allows 1.02× league QB points (rank 10 of 32) Projected line. 30.6 att · 215 pass yds · 2.13 pass TD · 0.65 INT · 3.9 car · 18 rush yds · 0.32 rush TD · 0.24 fumbles lost · 12.2 first downs Points. 19.1 in Half-PPR, range 8.3–30.3. The market prior is blended in Half-PPR and scales the whole line, so it carries into every format.
5	Brock PurdySF vs DEN	18.6	7.7–29.7	30.5 att · 3.0 car	25.3 (×0.95)	Sun 4:25 PM	25th (0.94×)
Show the math Volume. 96% of SF's pass attempts × 32.8 a game · 12% of SF's carries × 26.7 a game 30.4 attempts · 3.0 carries Efficiency. 7.9 yds/attempt 246 pass yds Scoring chances. 6.28 TD per 100 attempts 2.03 TD Vegas. SF implied 25.3 vs 26.6 in his games (×0.95) −3% volume, −10% TD rate Market prior. Preseason QB8 in FFC ADP → 18.7 PPG, 40% weight at 3 games +0.0 half-PPR pts (18.6 → 18.6) Context (not in projection). DEN allows 0.94× league QB points (rank 25 of 32) Projected line. 30.5 att · 246 pass yds · 1.87 pass TD · 0.59 INT · 3.0 car · 17 rush yds · 0.16 rush TD · 0.15 fumbles lost · 14.6 first downs Points. 18.6 in Half-PPR, range 7.7–29.7. The market prior is blended in Half-PPR and scales the whole line, so it carries into every format.
6	Bryce YoungCAR vs DET	18.6	7.7–29.7	36.1 att · 2.0 car	23.8 (×1.06)	Sun 8:20 PM	1st (1.36×)
Show the math Volume. 97% of CAR's pass attempts × 35.5 a game · 8% of CAR's carries × 26.0 a game 36.2 attempts · 2.0 carries Efficiency. 7.1 yds/attempt 259 pass yds Scoring chances. 4.96 TD per 100 attempts 2.16 TD Vegas. CAR implied 23.8 vs 22.4 in his games (×1.06) +3% volume, +12% TD rate Market prior. Not in preseason ADP — no prior Context (not in projection). DET allows 1.36× league QB points (rank 1 of 32) Projected line. 36.1 att · 259 pass yds · 2.02 pass TD · 0.71 INT · 2.0 car · 9 rush yds · 0.14 rush TD · 0.10 fumbles lost · 13.7 first downs Points. 18.6 in Half-PPR, range 7.7–29.7. The market prior is blended in Half-PPR and scales the whole line, so it carries into every format.
7	Jacoby BrissettARI at NYG	18.5	7.6–29.7	32.8 att · 3.5 car	23.5 (×1.20)	Sun 1:00 PM	11th (1.02×)
Show the math Volume. 95% of ARI's pass attempts × 30.8 a game · 12% of ARI's carries × 26.6 a game 32.7 attempts · 3.5 carries Efficiency. 6.5 yds/attempt 210 pass yds Scoring chances. 4.50 TD per 100 attempts 2.34 TD Vegas. ARI implied 23.5 vs 19.6 in his games (×1.20) +9% volume, +44% TD rate Market prior. Not in preseason ADP — no prior Context (not in projection). NYG allows 1.02× league QB points (rank 11 of 32) Projected line. 32.8 att · 210 pass yds · 2.01 pass TD · 0.52 INT · 3.5 car · 14 rush yds · 0.34 rush TD · 0.17 fumbles lost · 12.8 first downs Points. 18.5 in Half-PPR, range 7.6–29.7. The market prior is blended in Half-PPR and scales the whole line, so it carries into every format.
8	Lamar JacksonBAL vs TEN	18.5	7.6–29.6	29.9 att · 4.9 car	27.0 (×0.99)	Sun 1:00 PM	27th (0.87×)
Show the math Volume. 96% of BAL's pass attempts × 29.1 a game · 16% of BAL's carries × 27.7 a game 27.6 attempts · 4.5 carries Efficiency. 7.9 yds/attempt 223 pass yds Scoring chances. 5.18 TD per 100 attempts 1.66 TD Vegas. BAL implied 27.0 vs 27.2 in his games (×0.99) −0% volume, −1% TD rate Market prior. Preseason QB3 in FFC ADP → 20.6 PPG, 40% weight at 3 games +1.4 half-PPR pts (17.1 → 18.5) Context (not in projection). TEN allows 0.87× league QB points (rank 27 of 32) Projected line. 29.9 att · 241 pass yds · 1.53 pass TD · 0.57 INT · 4.9 car · 27 rush yds · 0.27 rush TD · 0.24 fumbles lost · 13.2 first downs Points. 18.5 in Half-PPR, range 7.6–29.6. The market prior is blended in Half-PPR and scales the whole line, so it carries into every format.
9	Kirk CousinsLV vs KC	18.1	7.3–29.3	32.0 att · 3.1 car	21.8 (×1.09)	Sun 4:25 PM	32nd (0.77×)
Show the math Volume. 94% of LV's pass attempts × 32.8 a game · 10% of LV's carries × 27.4 a game 32.0 attempts · 3.1 carries Efficiency. 7.1 yds/attempt 227 pass yds Scoring chances. 5.80 TD per 100 attempts 2.41 TD Vegas. LV implied 21.8 vs 20.0 in his games (×1.09) +4% volume, +18% TD rate Market prior. Not in preseason ADP — no prior Context (not in projection). KC allows 0.77× league QB points (rank 32 of 32) Projected line. 32.0 att · 227 pass yds · 2.29 pass TD · 0.75 INT · 3.1 car · 9 rush yds · 0.12 rush TD · 0.15 fumbles lost · 12.8 first downs Points. 18.1 in Half-PPR, range 7.3–29.3. The market prior is blended in Half-PPR and scales the whole line, so it carries into every format.
10	Trevor LawrenceJAX at CIN	18.0	7.1–29.1	32.5 att · 3.3 car	24.5 (×1.04)	Sun 1:00 PM	9th (1.03×)
Show the math Volume. 98% of JAX's pass attempts × 33.3 a game · 12% of JAX's carries × 27.1 a game 32.4 attempts · 3.3 carries Efficiency. 7.2 yds/attempt 234 pass yds Scoring chances. 5.52 TD per 100 attempts 2.14 TD Vegas. JAX implied 24.5 vs 23.6 in his games (×1.04) +2% volume, +8% TD rate Market prior. Preseason QB11 in FFC ADP → 17.9 PPG, 40% weight at 3 games +0.0 half-PPR pts (17.9 → 18.0) Context (not in projection). CIN allows 1.03× league QB points (rank 9 of 32) Projected line. 32.5 att · 234 pass yds · 2.01 pass TD · 0.73 INT · 3.3 car · 15 rush yds · 0.14 rush TD · 0.16 fumbles lost · 13.2 first downs Points. 18.0 in Half-PPR, range 7.1–29.1. The market prior is blended in Half-PPR and scales the whole line, so it carries into every format.
11	Patrick MahomesKC at LV	17.9	7.1–29.1	32.5 att · 3.2 car	26.3 (×1.01)	Sun 4:25 PM	19th (0.97×)
Show the math Volume. 99% of KC's pass attempts × 33.2 a game · 12% of KC's carries × 27.3 a game 33.1 attempts · 3.3 carries Efficiency. 7.5 yds/attempt 250 pass yds Scoring chances. 5.28 TD per 100 attempts 2.02 TD Vegas. KC implied 26.3 vs 25.9 in his games (×1.01) +1% volume, +3% TD rate Market prior. Preseason QB13 in FFC ADP → 17.4 PPG, 40% weight at 3 games −0.3 half-PPR pts (18.3 → 17.9) Context (not in projection). LV allows 0.97× league QB points (rank 19 of 32) Projected line. 32.5 att · 246 pass yds · 1.82 pass TD · 0.68 INT · 3.2 car · 15 rush yds · 0.16 rush TD · 0.15 fumbles lost · 12.7 first downs Points. 17.9 in Half-PPR, range 7.1–29.1. The market prior is blended in Half-PPR and scales the whole line, so it carries into every format.
12	Drew LockSEA vs LAC	17.8	7.0–29.0	30.9 att	25.0 (×1.10)	Sun 4:25 PM	21st (0.95×)
Show the math Volume. 94% of SEA's pass attempts × 32.2 a game · 6% of SEA's carries × 26.7 a game 30.9 attempts · 1.7 carries Efficiency. 7.5 yds/attempt 235 pass yds Scoring chances. 5.42 TD per 100 attempts 2.15 TD Vegas. SEA implied 25.0 vs 22.8 in his games (×1.10) +5% volume, +20% TD rate Market prior. Not in preseason ADP — no prior Context (not in projection). LAC allows 0.95× league QB points (rank 21 of 32) Projected line. 30.9 att · 234 pass yds · 2.06 pass TD · 0.49 INT · 1.7 car · 8 rush yds · 0.09 rush TD · 0.08 fumbles lost · 11.7 first downs Points. 17.8 in Half-PPR, range 7.0–29.0. The market prior is blended in Half-PPR and scales the whole line, so it carries into every format.

Showing 12 of 37.

Proj. is projected points in your scoring. Range is the 10th to 90th percentile of what players at the position actually scored around projections like it in 2024–25. T2 marks where tier 2 starts.

Volume is projected targets (tgt), carries (car) or pass attempts (att). Vegas is his team's implied total and how it compares with the games behind his numbers (×1.08 = 8% higher).

DvP is where the opponent ranks in fantasy points allowed to the position (1st allows the most). It is context — not in the projection — except in a game with no line yet, where it stands in for Vegas.

Lines as of Wed, Sep 30, 6:31 PM ET · stats through Week 3 · injury report: Week 4 (applied). The “updated” date at the top is the oldest of the three.

Projection accuracy: tracking began Week 4; the first scored week appears after its games are final.

Off the active roster on nflverse's weekly rosters, so not ranked: Jaxson Dart (QB, NYG, injured reserve).

Designations from the Week 4 injury report are applied: Questionable ×0.85, Doubtful ×0.70, and teammates of a player ruled out absorb a quarter of his share.

Injured reserve, practice-squad and game-day inactive statuses come from nflverse's Week 4 weekly rosters. A player who missed his team's last game is flagged "status unknown" until a Week 4 report settles it.

Method

How each projection is built

The model projects a stat line, not a point total: targets, catches, yards, touchdowns, attempts. Points come from scoring that line with your league's rules — the same arithmetic as the fantasy points calculator — so Standard, Half-PPR, PPR and custom scoring are all the same projection. Five named factors build the line:

Volume. His share of his team's targets, carries and pass attempts, with recent games counting most (last week 1, the week before 0.8, then 0.64…), each 2025 game counting a tenth of a 2026 game, and one game at a typical share for the position — times how often his team throws and runs, which is mostly the league average plus a slow team signal (every team's number carries 12 games of league average). Underdogs throw a little more.
Efficiency. Catch rate and yards per target, carry and attempt, pulled toward the league rate for his position so a two-game hot streak doesn't carry the number.
Scoring chances. Touchdowns come from where he gets the ball: targets and carries inside the 20 and inside the 5, times the league's touchdown rate from each zone. Last season's and this season's actual touchdowns get almost no weight, because red-zone usage predicts next week's touchdowns better than past touchdowns do.
Vegas. His team's implied total this week against the implied totals of the games his numbers come from. A 10% higher total means about 5% more volume and 21% more touchdowns. In the backtest, this was the single most valuable input.
Market prior. His preseason ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator, turned into last season's points per game at that positional rank, and counted as 2 games of evidence: 40% of the number after three games, 17% after ten.

On top: his own designation (Questionable ×0.85, Doubtful ×0.70, Out is not ranked), a boost when a same-position teammate is ruled out (the others absorb a quarter of his share), and a 10% pull toward his plain season average as a sanity check.

Defense vs position is shown, not used. Once the Vegas line is in, adding the opponent's points allowed made the backtest no better and sometimes worse — the line already prices the matchup. So the DvP column is context. The one exception is a game with no line yet, where the matchup stands in for Vegas and the row says so.

Kickers and defenses. Kickers use 5.20 + 0.125 × team implied total, +0.5 in a dome, −0.7 outdoors in 15+ mph wind. Defenses are the DST streaming rankings, unchanged. Both are Standard scoring.

Worked example, straight off the board

Josh Allen (QB, BUF vs NE) tops the QB board at 21.4 Half-PPR points. Here is every factor behind it:

Volume. 98% of BUF's pass attempts × 31.3 a game · 24% of BUF's carries × 27.5 a game 30.4 attempts · 6.7 carries
Efficiency. 7.7 yds/attempt 238 pass yds
Scoring chances. 5.01 TD per 100 attempts 2.16 TD
Vegas. BUF implied 27.5 vs 27.7 in his games (×0.99) −0% volume, −1% TD rate
Market prior. Preseason QB1 in FFC ADP → 22.8 PPG, 40% weight at 3 games +0.9 half-PPR pts (20.5 → 21.4)
Context (not in projection). NE allows 0.85× league QB points (rank 28 of 32)

Projected line. 31.7 att · 249 pass yds · 1.60 pass TD · 0.73 INT · 7.0 car · 31 rush yds · 0.63 rush TD · 0.35 fumbles lost · 15.2 first downs. Scored, that is 21.4 in Half-PPR, 21.5 in PPR and 21.3 in Standard.

Track record

How accurate is it?

The formula was fit on 2025 Weeks 4–11 only, then tested week by week on games it had not seen, using only information available before each kickoff: the rest of 2025, and all of 2024 with nothing re-tuned. The comparison is the number most people would otherwise use — each player's season-to-date points per game. Half-PPR.

Swipe for rank correlation and close calls

Test	Average miss	Rank correlation	Close calls right
2025, Weeks 12–18: this model	5.12 pts	0.417	63.9%
2025, Weeks 12–18: season average	5.34 pts	0.369	60.6%
2024, Weeks 4–18 (fully out of sample): this model	5.11 pts	0.475	62.1%
2024, Weeks 4–18 (fully out of sample): season average	5.19 pts	0.428	61.6%

Average miss is the mean absolute error in points (1,365 and 2,863 player-weeks). Rank correlation (Spearman) is how well the order matched each week, 1 being perfect. Close calls are every pair of similar starters at the same position in the same week: how often the higher projection outscored the other.

The honest read: a real but modest edge. It misses by 0.08 to 0.22 points less per player-week than season averages and orders players a little better. Weekly fantasy scoring is mostly noise — a receiver's 10th-to-90th-percentile range spans 15.3 points — so a small, steady margin over a strong baseline is what a real improvement looks like. The rest of the value is in seeing why a number is what it is.

At QB: close calls went right 61.1% of the time in the 2025 test (season average 58.6%) and 61.8% in 2024 (season average 61.5%).

How much a gap means. Over 2024–25, when two similar starters at the same position were this far apart in projection, the higher one outscored the other this often. That is why a tier breaks at a 1-point gap: inside it, the order is a coin flip.

Swipe for how often the higher one won

Gap	Reads as	Higher one won	Pairs
under 1 pt	Coin flip	52%	7,798
1–2 pts	Slight lean	57%	7,128
2–3 pts	Lean	62%	5,862
3–5 pts	Start	68%	7,823
5+ pts	Clear start	78%	5,710

Where it is weakest. Quarterbacks, especially early in the season: over 2024 Weeks 4–7, plain season averages beat it at QB (68.5% of close calls right against 63.6%). And kickers, whose rank correlation is only about 0.24 — better than a kicker's own average (0.17) but close to noise. Defenses hold up better: 0.41 against 0.14 for a defense's own average in 2024.

The range. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile of actual minus projected points across 2024–25, by position: QB −10.9 / +11.2, RB −7.2 / +9.0, WR −6.4 / +8.8, TE −4.7 / +7.5. The floor sits further below than the ceiling sits above the median because weekly scoring is lopsided: most weeks land under the projection, a few land far over it.

The honest part

What these rankings can't see

Role changes. A backup promoted this week has almost no share history, so he projects low until he has a game or two. A starter back from injured reserve is projected on his old games while his stand-ins still carry his absence, and a traded player carries his old team's role. When you know about a role change, trust it over the row.

Late scratches. There is no inactives feed. The last refresh before the early Sunday games reflects Friday's injury designations, so a player ruled out on Sunday morning still shows here.

Scoring the model can't honour. 100- and 300-yard bonuses, long-touchdown bonuses and return touchdowns aren't projected: a bonus pays on one big game, and a projection is an average. The range is measured in Half-PPR and applied around the projection in every format.

The level can drift. Across whole seasons the projections ran about half a point high one year and half a point low the other. The order is what to read; the exact points are an estimate.

Week 18. Teams resting starters make the final week the noisiest of the season, and nothing here models who sits.

A fantasy tool, not a prediction of any one game. FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice. The lines are a median across sportsbooks; no book is named or quoted.

Weekly cheat sheet — the top of every weekly board on one page.
NFL implied team totals — the Vegas board behind every row's Vegas factor.
Target share leaders — the volume behind the receiver and tight end projections.
Red zone & goal-line report — the usage the touchdown projections come from.
Fantasy points allowed by position — the full matchup table behind the DvP column.
NFL injury report — this week's designations, player by player.
Kicker streamers and DST streaming rankings — the full boards behind the K and DST tabs.
Waiver wire risers — players whose role grew last week.

Free weekly cheat sheet

Get the weekly cheat sheet in your inbox.

Two short emails a week in season. Tuesday: the waiver adds worth a claim, the defenses and kickers worth streaming, and who’s gaining targets. Saturday: injury report changes, line moves, wind and the close start/sit calls. No spam, unsubscribe any time.

We’ll email you once to confirm. See our privacy policy.

Next step

Quarterbacks follow the Vegas total. See every team’s.

Every team on the slate ranked by implied total — both sides of every game, with the 2025 fantasy payoff per tier.

Open Vegas implied totals

Chalk & Sharp, our AI start/sit assistant, is coming soon

2026 player stats, snaps, red-zone play-by-play, injuries, schedule and past-game lines via nflverse.com (CC-BY-4.0), stats as of Sep 30, 2026. Preseason ADP (the market prior, Sep 6–11 draft window) via Fantasy Football Calculator. Consensus lines as of Wed, Sep 30, 6:31 PM ET, a median across sportsbooks. Wind via the National Weather Service — NWS does not endorse this site. Players in the pool: 37 QB, 55 RB, 93 WR, 51 TE.